The Research On Yangtze River Delta City Tourism Competitiveness Evaluation And Trend Forecasting

On the basis of this study, see the related fields of domestic and foreign large number of documents, drawing on the comparative advantage theory, theory of competitive advantage, travel systems theory, theory, theory of sustainable development and national competitiveness "diamond model" urban competitiveness "bowstring Arrow competitive "model, Crouch-Ritchie sustainable tourism destination competitiveness models and other studies classical theoretical model.Has been clear about the urban tourism, urban competitiveness, urban tourism competitiveness, such as concept, on the basis of existing research results, the city tourism competitiveness evaluation factors divided into six types:tourism resource conditions, the level of economic development of tourism, the level of socio-economic development of the city, tourism-related industry development, human and natural environmental conditions, the role of government, and on this basis, build a includes three levels, six major elements of urban tourism competitiveness evaluation index system of 45 indicators. Extensive collection of 2009-2013 statistics Yangtze River Delta 8 prefecture-level city, using SPSS 16.0 software principal component analysis of the Yangtze River Delta and the city’s comprehensive competitiveness of tourism competitiveness factor quantitative evaluation, and on this basis on the gray prediction GM (1,1) model for the evaluation scores for trend forecasting. Evaluation results show that the Yangtze River Delta city’s comprehensive competitiveness of tourism in descending order of Shanghai, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, Ningbo, Wuxi, Changzhou, Shaoxing. Among them, Shanghai, Ningbo, Changzhou comprehensive competitiveness show a slow decline in the 14 years to 18 years, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, Wuxi, Shaoxing showing varying degrees of upward trend in 14 years to 18 years.