The Impact Of Appreciating RMB On Shenzhen’s Export And The Countermeasures

From the reform of rate in 2005, renminbi has run on the road of appreciating. In the end of 2012, the RMB dollar nominal exchange rate reached to 6.3125, the cumulative appreciation 29.77%. How will the export trade be attracted has got lots of attentions. As one of the most important economic cities of China, Shenzhen is opening up to the outside world, so the direct effection of appreciation on the export of Shenzhen should not be neglected. So by deeply analysing the influence of the appreciation on Shenzhen’s foreign trade export industry and then find the strategies,the export enterprises and the government can be calm to face the appreciation of RMB,and Shenzhen’s foreign trade export industry can develop more faster. The article will study whether the export of Shenzhen will be affected by the appreciation and the influence degree of the appreciation,and then analyse the different effect of the appreciation on different industries. Accordingly,it arrivals at a conclusion.By using the transverse and longitudinal comparison, the article will first research the impact degree of appreciation on the export as a whole of Shenzhen.By contrasting with Guanzhou, Yangjiang, Shantou of Guangdong,the article finds that it has greater negative impact on Shenzhen,and by contrasting with Hangzhou, Suzhou, Tianjin, Qingdao,it finds that the impact on Shenzhen is smaller.Then using computer, telephone, furniture,clothes and noble metal for example, it will analyse the different effects of appreciation on different industries.Based on the theory and qualitative analysis, the article first used on the 2000-2012 gravity model of Shenzhen’s export trade with 11 foreign countries, using the method of multiple regression analysis of panel data and found that the appreciation of RMB can really hurt the export of Shenzhen,and it also found that GDP and the absolute value of the difference of per capita GDP have positive influence on Shenzhen’s export while absolute distance and the appreciation of RMB real exchange rate against the dollar have negative effect.Finally, we make a conclusion on the basis of theoretical、qualitative and empirical analysis.And provide some specific policy advices, for example, providing policy support, upgrading industries,using derivative financial instruments,and so on.