The Potential Of Guangdong's Clothing Export Trade Based On The Trade Gravity Model

Clothing industry has always been the dominant industry in Guangdong Province.For more than ten years,Guangdong Province has been the largest province in China's clothing export trade.Clothing export is an important part of the province's commodity export trade.Guangdong's clothing export market is relatively concentrated.In recent years,with the increasing trade friction and other reasons,Guangdong's clothing export trade has shown a downward trend.Under the changing international business and trade cooperation among countries or regions in the world,facing the vast world clothing market,opportunities and challenges of clothing export trade in Guangdong Province emerge in endlessly.It is increasingly important to find a breakthrough in garment export trade.It is necessary to study the potential of clothing export trade in Guangdong Province.This paper mainly analyses the main factors affecting the clothing export trade of Guangdong Province,estimates the potential of clothing export trade of Guangdong Province,and provides suggestions for promoting the development of clothing export trade of Guangdong Province.Firstly,by reading the relevant literature on the influencing factors of clothing export trade,referring to the academic viewpoints and research results of scholars at home and abroad,this paper combs and summarizes the main factors that may affect the clothing export trade of Guangdong Province,and builds a trade gravity model on this basis.Then,the panel data of Guangdong Province and 15 major apparel importing countries or regions in the world from 2002 to 2017 are selected,and the model is regressed by using the statistical analysis software Eviews 7.2 to test the influencing factors of Guangdong's clothing export trade.Then,the coefficient equation of trade gravity model is obtained by stepwise regression method,nd the estimated value of clothing export of each country or region in this study is calculated,and the potential of clothing export trade of Guangdong Province is estimated.Through research,we can conclude that GDP,population and geographical distance,free trade agreement and other factors will affect the clothing export trade of Guangdong province.Guangdong's export potential to ASEAN and other emerging markets,South Africa and other countries and regions along the belt and road still needs to be excavated.Finally,the article puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the development of clothing export trade in Guangdong Province.