Research On The Employment Effects Of The Adjustment Of Industrial Structure In The Eastern China

Industrial structure adjustment and employment are two big issues related to people’s livelihood and country’s development.The " The Twelve-Five Plan " mentioned that China’s industrial structure is irrational, employment pressure and the structural contradictions coexist, in order to promote economic and social development in China, upgrading of industrial structure and the guarantee of full employment must be the two major goals of China’s future economic development. The relationship between industrial structure adjustment and employment are very close. The article selects the area of Eastern China to study the employment effects on the background of the industrial structure change.This article is divided into six parts, the contents are as follows:(1) The introduction. This part includes the background and significance of this article, research summary of scholars, framework of the research and innovation of this paper.(2) The theoretical analysis. This part includes definitions of the industrial structure and industrial classification, employment scale effects of the adjustment of industrial structure and its metrics, employment structure effects and its measurement indicators, labor transfer theory.(3) Analysis of the situation. The article bases the growth rate and proportion to analyze the Eastern industrial structure and the employment situation. The main conclusions:(1) At present, the output constitute in the eastern part performance as "2-3-1" pattern, but changing to the "3-2-1" patterns, the directions of industrial structural change is "1-2-3".(2) At present, the employment constitute performance as "2-3-1" pattern in the East, the directions of employment structure change is "1-2-3".(4) The preliminary analysis of the employment effects of the adjustment of industrial structure in the eastern part. This section mainly uses analysis method of comparative analysis, employment elasticity coefficient analysis and structure deviation analysis. The main conclusions:(1) Primary industry capacity to absorb labor force has declined markedly; secondary industry’s ability to create jobs are more stable, but insufficient; third industry’s employment absorption capacity has an upward trend, but still needs to be improved.(2) Negative deviation in primary industry is serious, inconsistent output and employment structure is quite large. Secondary and tertiary industries have a positive deviation, but showed reduced trend. The level of coordination between employment structure and industrial structure is increased of secondary and tertiary industries.(5) The econometric analysis of the employment effects of the adjustment of industrial structure in the eastern part. In this part, the author use total structural deviation degree and employment with the direction and speed of industrial structure adjustment to establish the VAR model. The main analysis methods are Cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis. The conclusion:(1) the direction and speed of industrial structure adjustment are the Granger cause of employment, will influence the scale of employment; direction and speed of industrial structure adjustment and employment have long-term equilibrium relation; speed of industrial structure adjustment too fast, excessive volatility, will have an negative impact on the scale of employment.(2) the direction and speed of industrial structure adjustment are the Granger cause of total structural deviation degree, will influence the structure of employment; direction and speed of industrial structure adjustment and total structural deviation degree have long-term equilibrium relation; the direction of industrial structure adjustment is negative to total structural deviation degree, the speed of industrial structure adjustment is positive to total structural deviation degree; speed of industrial structure adjustment too fast, excessive volatility, will have an negative impact on the coordination between employment structure and industrial structure.(6) Conclusions and policy recommendations. In this part,the author tries to put forward some opinions to try to make the industrial structure adjustment to meet the requirements of economic and social development and realities of labour in the eastern part, as well as providing a positive inspiration to some other developed parts of the country and even the Midwest’s study on the relationship between industrial structure and employment.