| Food Security is one of the most pressing issues facing our country and the world, arable land resources and climate factors are the two basic conditions determine regional food production. Papers AEZ model based on joint agricultural production potential UN FAO and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) latest joint research and development, combined with the actual situation in northern arable cultivation, building language-based AML system analysis platform, considering the recent20-year maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, sunshine length, average wind speed, relative humidity six climatic factors meteorological data, soil data and DEM elevation data and land use data1990,2000,2010three years to1km*1km grid is unit, interlaced with wheat, grain production potential of corn, rice, soybeans, sweet potatoes are five varieties of food crops sub-12, as well as climatic factors and land use change on agricultural production potential caused by the use of a comprehensive study.First, assume that climatic conditions remain unchanged, with1990-2010average climatic conditions, combined1990,2000,2010three-year land use data to calculate the gain in the study area three grain production potential data. And analyze the impact of the type of change on food production potential in the study area of each land use. Then assumed no change in land use, land-use data in2010, combined with years of meteorological data1990-2010, respectively, to obtain the study area each year for food production potential of data, analyze the impact of climate change on food production potential of the study area. The study found:2010North ecotone overall low food production area, and the spatial difference was significant, total grain production potential of58,776,000tons, with an average grain production potential of420.7t/km2, is interleaved with the actual grain yield1.57times both the correlation coefficient0.9069. Crisscross Heilongjiang and Jilin, Inner Mongolia border region with Inner Mongolia Chifeng City area, Hebei Province, southwestern and Fengning County, Gansu Province, Yinchuan, regional food production potential is high, staggered with Shaanxi, low potential for food production in northern region of Inner Mongolia. The past20years, LUCC process resulting in the research area of food production potential production12.16million tons, resulting in climate change research area of food production potential production11.05million tons, in the course of joint action LUCC and climate change, food production potential net reduction of23.21million tons.10years before the precipitation and temperature and other factors led to cut climate change impact is far greater than the increase LUCC process yield impact of arable land, then cut during the process of LUCC impact far greater than the10-year yield effects of climate change.LUCC process leads to the northern ecotone food production potential after the first local showing a small increase in a significant reduction in net reduction of a wide range of trends from1990to2010in the study area produced12.16million tons of grain to reduce the ratio reached17.1%, an average annual reduction of608,000tons. In the1990s, human activities and other factors, a greater degree of farmland reclamation of arable land has increased, the total grain production potential of the study area showed a rising trend. After the10-year period, on the one hand by grassland and woodland conservation policy and human impact of the traditional thinking of planting some regions forest and farmland to the phenomenon of animal husbandry and land Homelessness, on the other hand due to the construction of high quality arable land encroachment, and the grass, woodland and construction land compensation from the poor quality of arable land, resulting in the meantime the potential to reduce significantly the total grain production. LUCC process, turn the construction of arable land, forest land, unused land and waters resulting in a large number of high-quality type of occupation or loss of arable land, food production potential cut significantly; grassland, woodland and arable land for construction type turn lower rate of increase in food production potential; Not the use of arable land into the process significantly increase grain production potential. Thus, the protection of high quality arable land and fallow moderately important for increasing food production potential.Climate change leads to food production in northern ecotone has some potential differences in time,10years ago after10years showed a significant reduction in a small increase in the trend, the study area to reduce the potential for food production11.04million tons, a decrease of15.8%, with an average annual reduction of552,000tons.10years ago the majority of the production potential of the study area are in a decreasing trend in the region, with Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and Shanxi-Gansu border region with an annual production potential of the Inner Mongolia region to reduce the transfer rate of more than50kg/km2, the potential for increased production only Taonan City, Jilin Province regions, and Hohhot, Inner Mongolia Tongliao region surrounding areas and smaller growth rates. During the10years, food production potential differences are significant changes in the space research area, production potential Horqin Banner, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang same border area, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, at the junction with the pastoral zone in the region and the border region with Inner Mongolia, Shanxi showing a growth trend in Jilin, Hulun Buir Grassland in central productive potential of the region and the northeastern province of Ningxia showed a decreasing trend. Production potential of the study area and interannual variability of temperature, precipitation, and the amount of change in the correlation of radiation were0.68,0.71,0.18(=5%). Production potential and precipitation trends fit is high, a good correlation, the correlation coefficient of the highest in all kinds of weather elements, and changes in the amount of radiation poor correlation. Various types of food production on climate change showed the potential for the production trend, but the average production trends vary, cut trend is most obvious warm and dry climate zone, a20-year average production trend was17.13kg/km2, a, the smallest cut trend is warm and humid climate zones,20years production trends1.07kg/km2, a.)... |
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