Land Use Change And Simulation Study In The Farming-pastoral Ecotone Of Inner Mongolia Based On FLUS Model

Land provides human beings with the necessities of life and is an indispensable part of human life.In other words,land is a necessary,fixed and irreplaceable resource for human development.Based on the past land use trends,the research on the land use situation in a specific region can effectively obtain the future land use development trend by simulating the future land use situation through the mathematical model,and then provide reference opinions for the government's scientific decision-making.Taking the agro-pastoral ecotone of Inner Mongolia as the research area and taking its 15 years from 2000 to 2015 as the time span,this paper analyzes the land evolution law and changing characteristics of space and quantit y through three ways: transfer matrix,quantity structure and spatial center of gravity transfer model.based on the characteristics of the study area,11 driving factors of natural,human and economic factors acting on land use change in the study area were selected.based on the Auto-Logistic regression method,a brief driving force study of all factors was carried out.based on the above research results,combined with the FLUS model and the Markov model,the accuracy verification of all factors is carried out.In order to realize the inversion of land developme nt trend under the three conditions of natural development,ecological protection and economic priority in the agro-pastoral zone of Inner Mongolia in 2025 and 2030,the follow ing conclusions are obtained:1.Cultivated land and grassland are the two main land use modes in the study area,accounting for about 45% and 26% of the total area of the agro-pastoral ecotone in Inner Mongolia.Because the agro-pastoral ecotone of Inner Mongolia is a region dominated by agriculture and animal husbandry,the development of construction land is relatively low,and the amount of reserve land resources available for development is relatively high,but because of its own vulnerability,the ecological environment factors should also be coordinated in the process of considering the development of urbanization.The research results show that the development trend of land use in the coming decades is that the unused land decreases gradually,the construction land increases gradually,and the cultivated land,woodland and grassland transform each other.Based on the perspective of spatial structure evolution,it is influenced by common factors such as transportation,economy,population scale and so on.All kinds of land use patterns are very different,and the center of gravity of each land use type mainly moves to the southwest.In the intensity of land development,the utilization efficiency and output intensity increase year by year,but compared with other regions,there is still a big gap in land use,and the utilization efficiency is not high.2.Comparing the simulated data for 2015 with the actual data of the research area,it is found that the accuracy of the simulation data reaches 91.4%,which indicates that the simulation data of the model can reflect the land use situation of the research area more accurately,and also proves the accuracy of the digital model,which can predict the land use situation of the research area more accurately,and is an important means to analyze the land development trend.Based on the simulation results of this study,it can provide reference value for government land use policy and land master plan.3.Based on the simulation results,the land use situation in the three modes can regulate the land change,but it can not achieve the purpose of optimizing the land use layout.In order to achieve the goal of sustainable development and rational distribution of land use,factors such as natural society,policy and demand need to be considered synthetically.Based on differe nt scenarios,this study proposes different development models.It can be concluded that both spatial distribution and quantity can meet the national land use planning in 2025 and 2030,which indicates that the model is suitable.As a result,the author thinks that the effective forecasting means of land use structure optimization and sustainable development can be simulated by FLUS model.