Farmers' Planting Adaption Strategies To Climate Change In Core Areas For Grain Production

Under the background of climate warming,the trend of warming and drying in Henan Province is obvious.The changes of temperature and precipitation has changed the temporal and spatial pattern of agricultural climate resources and brought the fluctuation of main grain crops output in Henan Province.So farmers who take agriculture as the main livelihood are subjected to a series of shocks,which leads to the adjustments and changes of agricultural production activities by famers in Henan province.The adjustments of farmers' agricultural production activities are not only related to the livelihood safety of farmers themselves,but also to the food safety of the country.Therefore,it is particularly important to study farmers' planting adaptations in agricultural production.Based on the daily observation data of Henan province and its surrounding areas,this paper selects temperature,precipitation and sunshine factors in the growth period closely related to the growth of grain crops,and the climate statistical diagnosis method is used to analyze the spatio-temporal changes of the climatic resources during the crop growth period.Also based on the panel nonlinear regression model,the sensitive area of grain crop yield to climate change in Henan province is divided.And then field investigation is conducted in the sensitive area to analyze the adaptive behavior of farmers in Henan Province under climate change.The following conclusions are drawn:(1)We found that the regreening stage minimum temperature and mean temperature in the growth stage of winter wheat increased significantly,the rate of increase decreased from the center to outside Henan.The sunshine duration of the summer maize growth period decreased significantly,furthermore,central Henan was the fastest reduction area in sunshine duration while southwestern Henan had the slowest reduction.The yield of winter wheat and summer maize exhibited the largest sensitive effect to mean temperature and average temperature of 7-8 months,and both exhibited the smallest sensitive effect to precipitation during the growth period.The sensitive area of winter wheat yield to climate factors is mainly distributed in western and southern Henan.The sensitive area of summer maize yield to climate factors is dispersedly distributed in Henan province.The public sensitive areas of winter wheat and summer corn to climatic factors are mainly concentrated in a few regions in the large part of western Henan and in the south of Henan.(2)More than 83% of the farmers in sensitive and non sensitive areas considered that the climate changed in recent years,but the proportion of farmers in non sensitive areas who did not believe that climate changed and doubted climate changed was higher than that in the sensitive area.So farmers' perception of climate change is basically consistent with the research on the regional sensitivity of farmers.Meanwhile,the farmers' perception of temperature variation is the most obvious.(3)Farmers in sensitive areas preferred to increase input of pesticides and fertilizers first,and increased irrigation times fourth,while farmers in non sensitive areas conversely.And,material capital and financial capital are the key factors influencing farmers to adopt different adaptation measures under climate change.The common driving force of farmers' adaptation measures in sensitive areas and non sensitive areas is human capital and social capital,while farmers' perception of climate change and financial capital are different.The clear perception of the climate change and the loss of agricultural income in the sensitive area is the important driving force to adopt the adaptation measures,but the higher non-agricultural income of the farmers in the non sensitive area is gradually becoming the resistance of farmers' planting adaptation.(4)The selection of adaptation models for farmers in sensitive and non sensitive areas showed no difference,and the number of farmers in the two regions with "adjusted + expansion" adaptation model was the most,followed by the choice of expansion model.The dynamic difference between the farmers in the sensitive and non sensitive areas is mainly reflected in the total area of cultivated land in natural capital.The diversity of crop planting types and the difference of planting scale in the increase of cultivated land area become the key factors leading to the dynamic differences between the sensitive and non sensitive area farmers in choosing the adaptation model of "adjustment + expansion".The farmers in sensitive areas and non sensitive areas have the same resistance factors to choose "to expand mainly".The proportion of non-agricultural income in financial capital and the area of cultivated land in natural capital are the common resistance.The results can not only reveal the common influence mechanism of the adaptation behavior of farmers in the main grain producing areas under the climate change,but also can clarify the difference of the mechanism of the adaptation of farmers' adaptation in the region,thus providing a theoretical reference for the formulation of different adaptation measures.