Impacts Of Climate Change On The Social Economic System Of Ecological Fragile Region In The Western Of China

Since the 1980 s,warming global climate change generally got the attention of the Governments,international organizations and scientific workers around the world.Climate changes on China's social and economic systems have had a major impact on sustainable development.However,agricultural production is more sensitivity to the climate change,even in in vulnerable regions.Aiming to provide a scientific reference on policies and sustainable socio-economic development in Three Rivers Source Region,this article selected typical ecologically fragile western region-Three Rivers Source Region of Qinghai Province as the study area,and analyzed the impacts of climate change on the socio-economic system around the elements,such as climate change,livestock husbandry,grassland net primary productivity(NPP)and household's income.Based on the natural ecology and socio-economic background data in 1988,1995,2000,2005,2008 and 2012,we built a database of nearly 24 years in Three Rivers Source Region.We Selected the characterization of livestock husbandry,grassland NPP and social economic development,and assessed the change features of climate,land use,vegetation NPP and social economic in the past 24 years;through on decomposition of NPP changes,we analyzed the contribution of land use changes,climate factor and human activities to the change of vegetation NPP;we used MLM method(Multi level Modeling)to determine response mechanisms of grassland NPP to climate change on a regional scale;and we adopted simultaneous equations model to analysis the indirect effects of climate change on farmers' income.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)For nearly 20 years,the temperature,rainfall,sunshine duration are temporal and spatial heterogeneity in Three Rivers Source Region.In space,the temperature and precipitation distribution from low latitudes at lower elevations in the Southeast to the decreasing trend in high latitude and high altitude areas,sunshine and vice versa,at the time,average temperatures and rainfall in Three Rivers Source Region showed an upward trend volatility and sunshine duration was increased and then decreased trend.Overall,the past 20 years,climate change was "warm" trend in Three Rivers Source Region.(2)The spatial distribution of net primary productivity Three Rivers Source Region overall trend to decrease from East to West,between 1988-2012,the vegetation NPP in Three Rivers Source Region annual fluctuations in an upward trend,rising from about178.52 gC·m-2·yr-1 in 1988 to 266.48gC·m-2·yr-1 in 2012,increased by 49.26%,with an average annual growth rate of 1.97%.Climate change could improve the grassland NPP,and contribution rate of 75.38%;and land-use changes detrimental to grass growth in NPP,contribution rate of only 8.52%.(3)Multilevel modeling shows that climatic factor effects on NPP of grassland of the whole 48%,and socio-economic characteristics,location,and other natural conditions also significantly affect grassland changes in NPP.Grassland NPP is not conducive to improving socio-economic development,and warm and humid climate change promotes grass growth and development.Herdsmen's income and the grass growth is significantly and positively correlated,geographical features,slaughter weight,all good herdsmen' income,and herdsmen' income also increased on grassland NPP supply pressure.