Research On Regional Real Estate Market Risk Early Warning System

In recent years, because of the reform of traditional welfare housing distributionsystem and accelerate construct the urbanization, China’s real estate industry growingrapidly, the proportion of investment in real estate industry in increasing, its developmentspeed is several times during the same period of the national economy growth. But thereal estate market overheating will also bring a lot of bad effects, as a series of policiesthe country issued, such as"Five policy measures to strengthen the real estate marketregulation","Six policy about regulating the real estate market", and Limited PurchasingOrder, rate of the real estate industry development began to fall.Firstly, this paper start from the general theory of the real estate market risk, pointout the concept of real estate market risk faced. Analysis of real estate market risk fromthe real estate commodity nature, imperfect market environment, and the macroeconomicregulation and control, and the the people’s subjectivity and irrational mechanism. Fromreal estate prices, investment and vacancy situation to analyze the risk of real estatemarket forms. Summed up the periodicity of the real estate market dominant,concealment, diversity and dynamic, and hazardous characteristics, and then, China’sspecific national conditions from the policy, economy, market and related industries thatour country facing the real estate market risk. Secondly, relating to the real estate industrywas reviewed, and discussed the theory, methods and characteristics,and principle ofindustry market risk early warning system, combined with the domestic scholars’ generallogic framework of construction of the real estate market risk early warning system.Finally, analysis to real estate industry development of Zhengzhou city present situationand risk, refer to all relevant information, access to real estate development ofZhengzhou city in all kinds of data and other related information, from four aspects of thereal estate market and the development of the domestic economic balance, the real estatemarket supply and demand. the real estate market internal equilibrium, relation withnational economic development of the coordination, using Principal ComponentAnalysis, objective gives each index weight by using SPSS software, set up the realestate market bubble early-warning index system, it is concluded that comprehensiveearly warning index, and uses the method of three delta divides the real estate market riskearly warning index, through the early warning index of the real estate marketdevelopment status, analysis of state of the development of the real estate industry in different years, Zhengzhou city, Zhengzhou city real estate industry has developed rapidly,but does not overheat condition the main conclusion, and Zhengzhou city from2002to2012, the real estate industry development present situation to explain, put forward toimprove the industrial structure, guide the housing consumption, the countermeasures ofreducing the vacancy rate.