Employment Effects Of ZheJiang Manufacturing Upgrading

Over the years, with the continuous progress of China’s industrial upgrading policy, China’s industrial structure and employment structure have changed tremendously. At the same time, supply-demand relationship of labor market has also undergone a structural change,"recruitment difficulties" and "Undergraduate Employment difficulties " dilemma occurs, employment situation is worsening. Zhejiang province is Open coastal provinces, manufacturing industry is the backbone of its industrial economy, for a long time, the manufacturing sector not only promote industrial upgrading achieve, but also an important sector promote the total employment increase in Zhejiang. Therefore,this article uses Zhejiang industries panel data to analyze the employment effects of Zhejiang manufacturing upgrading, in order to solve Zhejiang current employment problems, and offer advice and suggestions, also provides a reference value for other coastal open provinces.In this paper, the Ward cluster analysis divided manufacturing industry into three groups, namely, labor-intensive manufacturing, intermediate and capital-intensive manufacturing. On the basis of a clear definition of the concept of industrial upgrading, this article use the changes in Zhejiang manufacturing gross output, the output value accounted for the three groups and the change of labor productivity to describe the current situation of manufacturing industrial upgrading; Use the Changes of employment growth in the manufacturing sector, the proportion of manufacturing employment accounted for total employment in Zhejiang Province and the three groups employment accounted for manufacturing employment to describe the state of employment in Zhejiang Province manufacturing; At last, this article use production data and employment data of the three groups to calculated the structure deviation degree of industrial-employment in manufacturing industry. Found that changes in the employment structure along with changes in the output structure,the employment is increasing while the output increase in intermediate and capital-intensive manufacturing; when compare to the industrial-employment structure deviation degree,this article discover that the deviation degree of the intermediate manufacturing is he lowest in recent years, and show a downward trend. Therefore, we believe that the output growth of intermediate manufacturing has a good pull effect on employment.The ability of Zhejiang manufacturing industries to absorb employment is divided into direct absorptive capacity and indirect absorptive capacity,and then, use employment elasticity analysis method to analyze the direct absorptive capacity of the manufacturing sector, use the input-output analysis methods to analyze the indirect and overall absorptive capacity of various sub-sectors of manufacturing. In the direct absorption capacity, this article found the overall employment elasticity of manufacturing on a declining curve, as far as the breakdown of industry be concerned, communications equipment, computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing, wood processing and wood products industry, fabricated metal products, waste resources and waste materials processing industry, the employment elasticity of these sectors is positive and they have a significant growth trend; In terms of indirect absorptive capacity, the study found that indirect employment effects of the manufacturing industry in the waste resources and waste materials processing industry, communications equipment, computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing, metal smelting and rolling processing industry and fabricated metal products is higher, even higher than the third industry;Through the comparison for the integrated employment coefficient before and after adjustment, the study found that communications equipment, computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing has the lowest decline, and has a higher direct employment effects and indirect employment effects.Then, using the industry panel data of Zhejiang manufacturing industry, put the measurement index of industrial development, industrial structure change and industrial value chain upgrade as independent variables, put the manufacturing employment as dependent variable, and than establish the affected model of manufacturing industrial upgrade on the number of employment. The study found that industrial output growth and industrial structure change play a positive role in promoting employment during the upgrade, total factor productivity that as a measure of the value chain upgrade has a negative effect on employment, but the technical efficiency enhance after the decomposition of TFP has a significantly promotion on employment. Finally, based on these findings, this paper explains China’s current "dilemma" phenomenon. And think that the main reason causing Zhejiang labor market appears "dilemma" structural problems is that the speed of industrial upgrading do not keep up with the speed of labor structural change. In view of this, we propose the following policy recommendations:choice reasonable industry order during industrial upgrade, enhance independent innovation capability in order to accelerate the industry value chain upgrading, develop service-oriented manufacturing to enhance the optimization of the services to the manufacturing sector, adjust the college configuration of professional and personnel, strengthen the skills of personnel training in order to promote quality employment and change students’employment philosophy, to encourage students to start their own businesses.