The Land-Use And Land-Cover Change Simulation Research Of The Island Region Based On CLUE-S Model

In recent years, with the formulated and implement of the marine developmentstrategy and the development of marine economy, the advantage of islands in locationand resources are highlighted gradually. The demand for Island development isbecoming harder to resist. But as the important transitional regions for exchange ofsubstance, energy, and information between marine ecosystems and land ecologicalsystem, There is a significant differences in natural, social, economic and developmentmode between Island region and other area. By studying the regular pattern of land-usechanges, this article will pick up some influence factors of land-use change in islandregion. Based on the CLUE-S model, this research will simulating the land use changewithin the next eight years of Daishan Island.The main research approach of this article can be summarized as follows: TakingDaishan Island of Zhejiang Province as the research region, through the literaturereview and history data analysis, find out the most effective driving factors of land usechange in the research region. Employing the Logistic regression model, the probabilityof land use change and the highest preference of the every cell will be determined. Then,Based on the land use data of the research area in year2009, the land use spatialstructure in year2012can be simulated by employing the CLUE-S model. Thencompare the difference between the simulated data and the actual data to adjust theparameters of the model. After all, the paper simulates and forecasts land use change in2020under three political backgrounds and three different land demand scenario.The main conclusions of this research can be concluded as follows：(1)The landuse change analysis shows that in year2005to2012, farmland’s area has been increasedwhen other agricultural land’s area has been decrease, the construction fields has beenexpanded when the range of tidal flat has been reduce;(2) The mean factors which havea significant effect to land use change are mostly economics factors and society factors,but the natural conditions also have a limit to land use type conversation.(3) Thesimulation of CLUE-S model within2009to2012and its result shows that it‘s forecastare mostly correct,so in this article it has been used in simulation of the land usestructure in2020.(4)This article can provide effective support to land use plan’s workout and will give some advice to the economic layout. The main innovation of this article are:(1) Analysis the natural conditions,economic conditions and other conditions to pick up a list of factors which have asignificant effect to the land use change of island region.(2)Based on the CLUE-Smodel to simulate the further land use change of the region.