The Empirical Study On The Influence Factors Of Industry Structure Upgrading In China

After the reform and opening to the outside world, our country economy has obtained the fast development, but still belongs to extensive growth, one of the important ways to change the mode of growth isto promote the development of industrial structure upgrading. The change trend of industrial structure upgrading marks as the level, stage and direction of China’s economic development. Based on the related literature of the industrial structure upgrading, this paper tries to explore theinfluence factors of industrial structure upgrading in china.As a basic policy system in the high‐speed economic development, China decentralization of fiscal policy through the combination of economic decentralization and the promotion mechanism, effectively stimulates local economic growth. But it accompanied by some negative effects. Under the decentralization mode of local economy it has appeared gradually the gap between urban and rural area and unbalance of economy development. This indicates that while the local government promotes regional economic growth, it also brings economic structure unbalance. Therefore, withdeeplyunderstanding of China’s fiscal decentralization policy, it should pay more attention to the impact local government financial behavior on the adjustment and optimization of economic structure.Based on the above reasons, this paper will focus on the fiscal behavior. The fiscal behavior under the current system presents some characteristics different from general decentralization, includingfiscal size expansion and fiscal structuredeviation, also with greater volatility. The volatility comes mainly from the fiscal behavior uncertainty. Therefore, this paper takes the fiscal volatility as the main explanatory variable, and selects the degree of openness, financial support as control variablesto study impact on the upgrading of the industrial structure. The structure of this paper is divided into the following several aspects. Firstly, the advantages and disadvantages of comparative measurement method. It includes the contrast of calculation methods of industrial structure upgrading andfinancial volatility. Compare the characteristics of the data and different measurement methods of industry structure upgrading; make desirable determination of the calculation method; a brief description of the calculation method of fiscal volatility. Secondly, analysis on the trend of changes in industrial structure upgrading in china.From the dimension of time and regional distribution analysis the status of industrial structure upgrading level.Thirdly, the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of industrial structure upgrading in china. With the view of fiscal volatility, from the fiscal expenditure and revenue volatility discuss its impact on the upgrading of the industrial structure. Through the panel data of Chinese31provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions for24years, make descriptive results of industrial structure upgrading and fiscal volatility. Using both the two stage regression conclusion, validity verification conclusion. Finally, put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.Through theoretical analysis and empirical study, the paper draws the following conclusions:(1) the change trend of three kinds of industrial structure upgrading level calculation methods are basically the same. The most significant changes in Moore structure index variation amplitude.(2) industrial structure upgrading level is "wild type" growth, there are two obvious changes in node.(3) the industrial structure upgrading level growth slowed down.(4) inter regional difference of the industrial structure upgrading level is great. The Beijing Tianjin Hebei region is more than the national average level, the central region is lower than the average, the eastern coastal areais basically higher than the national average level, the northeast, the western region is lower than the national average level of basic.(5) no significant differences between the change trend of out three kinds of fiscal volatility measurement method; different parameters in HP filter selected fluctuation trend are completely consistent, but the range of sizes are different; regression residual standard deviation conclusion more desirable.(6) fiscal expenditurevolatility is significantly higherand more violent than that of fiscal revenue volatility.(7) fiscal volatility has a negative impact on the upgrading of industrial structure. Fiscal expenditure volatility, fiscal revenue volatility, openness and fiscal expenditure scale and upgrading of the industrial structure level is of negative correlation; the lag one industrial structure upgrading, scale of fiscal revenue and financial support and industrial structure upgrading are positively correlated.