Research On Logistics Demand Forecasting Of Panjin City

Panjin City is one of China’s leading petrochemical production base, but also is an important production base of high-quality agricultural products processing and excellent rice export base. But in recent years, because of the impact of Liaohe Oilfield reduce natural gas production, Panjin City, inherent in resource-based cities, increasingly acute the contradictions and problems, the daunting task of how to achieve this sustainable development imperative,the daunting task of how to achieve this sustainable development has become imperative.June2007, the State Council Leading Group for Revitalizing the Old Industrial Base in Northeast China’s determine the Panjin City as a national resource-based economic transformation pilot city on the fourth plenary meeting.Also,"Liaoning Coastal Economic Zone Development Plan"proposed Panjin City as one of the main focus of the construction of the economic cycle in four cities. This is for Panjin City’s alternative industries such as petrochemical, equipment manufacturing, plastics and new materials, organic green, modern services provided inexhaustible power.Currently, the development of modern logistics industry research of Panjin City is less, step forward in the development of the city lack of strategic planning guidance systems, easily occur over-exploitation, the blind construction phenomenon of city logistics infrastructures, resulting in city logistics’s imbalance of supply capacity and demand,so, scientific and rational city development plan for the rapid development of logistics in Panjin is necessary.Paper is researched from city logistics demand, demand forecasting model, the development status of the logistics industry and logistics needs of Panjin City, Panjin City forecasts four aspects. Firstly, introduces the theory of city logistics involved in this paper; Secondly, introduces the predictive model to be used in this paper; Thirdly, analysis Panjin City’s macroeconomic situation of modern logistics development, regional economic conditions and the city’s own comprehensive of environmental conditions; Finally,use software, such as SAS and MATLAB,and chooses gray prediction model, stepwise regression prediction method, polynomial curve fitting method and the combination forecasting model forecasts to predict Panjin city’s cargo and freight turnover in2014-2016.Then, examined in turn of the results of each model.Predictions show a big space for the development of logistics in Panjin City, and make recommendations on the development plan of Panjin City’s logistics in the end.