The Study Of Corporate Leverage、Macro Factors And Corporate Risk Taking

In recent years, among the many problems facing businesses, enterprise riskissues gradually attracted the attention of academia and relevant governmentdepartments. Numerous studies show that companies can improve businessperformance risk growth and promote economic development (John et al.2008; Fogelet al.2008), for a sustainable and healthy development of national economy is critical.As we all know, corporate management and development is inseparable from itsmacroeconomic environment, macroeconomic factors which are bound to have amicro-enterprise investment behavior and financing decisions will have a significantimpact, of course, bear the risk of the enterprise will be macroeconomic factors impact,but most of the existing research literature on the microscopic characteristics ofenterprise business risk impact, rarely comes to the impact of macroeconomiccharacteristics of the risk borne by the enterprise. Therefore, to clarify the impact ofmacroeconomic factors on business risk, it is very necessary. Among the manymacroeconomic factors, monetary policy and the economic cycle is the most importantmacro events, this article will monetary policy and the economic cycle as a startingpoint to study the impact of macroeconomic factors on business risk, and analyzes thecorporate leverage ratio at which the important role played. Specific studies are asfollows:This paper selects the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from2000to2012as the year panel data sample (because of corporate risk using athree-year rolling window basis, so this return to the actual measurement sampleinterval2000-2010). First studied corporate leverage, the impact of monetary policy onthe level of business risk, specific ideas: First, from a static model to study the effectsof corporate leverage to bear influence on the level of business risk, currency riskpolicy of the enterprise, and then studied business leverage and the interaction ofmonetary policy affect the level of commitment to the enterprise risk of monetarypolicy during this period proxy variables used as a proxy variable interest rates, andcorporate risk-taking may be due to a viscous (own infectious), then use the amount ofmoney aspects of monetary policy tools to use dynamic panel model (generalized fromthe model) re the above study the issue, and finally the use of dynamic panel threshold model to study the effects of monetary policy on the business risk of whether under thecorporate leverage ratio within different ranges have different. Through these findings:(1) corporate leverage and corporate risk taking commitment to a positive correlation;(2) the risk of monetary policy will affect corporate commitment, and this effect isasymmetrical: the direction of monetary policy would increase the risk of corporatecommitment levels, while tighter monetary policy would reduce the risk of corporatecommitment level, extent, tightening monetary policy to influence corporate risk affectmonetary policy is greater than the risk of the enterprise, in addition to the amount ofmoney impact of business risk is greater than the impact of interest rates in monetarypolicy on enterprise risk; and (3) monetary policy can thus assume the risk of corporateleverage by influencing business impact, loose monetary policy and corporate leverageinteraction will increase the risk of corporate commitment level, tightening ofmonetary policy by lowering the level of commitment to the role of corporate leverageto reduce the risk of the enterprise, and the influence of monetary policy to assume agreater relative risk of low leveraged companies, highly leveraged companies, inaddition to currency terms of monetary policy affect the amount of influence to bearthrough the role of corporate leverage ratio is greater than the interest rate risk of theinteraction between monetary policy and corporate leverage corporate exposures;(4)dynamic panel threshold model results indicate that monetary policy between the levelof risk-taking and enterprise the existence of a non-linear effect of corporate leverageratio threshold.Then the main research enterprise leverage, monetary policy, economic cyclesaffect the level of commitment of corporate risk, the specific idea is: First Man on thebasis of the previous economic cycle will be introduced into the model to study theeffects of economic cycles assume the level of business risk, then research enterpriseand economic leverage to bear on the business cycle interactions affect the level of risk;finally research firm leverage, monetary policy and economic cycles affect the level ofcommitment among the interaction of business risk. These studies found that:enterprise risk economic cycle would produce asymmetric impact of macroeconomictightening will reduce the risk of corporate commitment to macroeconomic expansionwill increase the risk of corporate commitment; economic cycle through the role ofcorporate leverage enterprise risk impact, and this impact has asymmetry,macroeconomic contraction commitment levels by reducing corporate leverage,thereby reducing the risk of the enterprise; while macroeconomic expansion enables companies through increased leverage to increase their risk; different affect leverageand monetary policy in the context of the economic cycle will have different corporateexposures; affect leverage and different monetary policies in different economic cyclesrisk business background would not the same.Finally, based on the above conclusion, provides some suggestions for theformulation of monetary policy and corporate loan financing, risk management.