Empirical Research On The Impact Of Agricultural Loans On Agricultural Performance

In this paper, we found that most of the researches on rural financial market arein the angle of financial institutions by summarizing the existed related theories, andbasically exploring their financial performance. Meanwhile, researches aboutperformance evaluation of borrowers’ who obtaining loans form the formal financialinstitutions are relatively few. Based on such like a situation, we empirically analyzethe impact of agricultural loans on agricultural economic performance in the angle ofborrowers in this article in two kinds of perspectives that the macroscopic and themicroscopic. Specifically, the total research is, in a macro point of view, about theinfluence of the formal financial sectors’ financing amount change separately onagricultural output and farmers’ income of the agricultural sectors. And the refinedstructural study, in a micro way, is about the impact of agricultural loans’ fluctuationon plantings’ structural change respectively in area and production.The agricultural loan indexes we use in this paper differentiate from those in theprevious researches, since we, hereby, classify the agricultural loans into the total loans, thetotal agricultural loans and the account of total agricultural loans to total loans (hereinafterreferred as the agricultural loan proportion). Then we begin empirical study the affection ofthe three categories of loans separately on agricultural management performance: theagricultural output and farmers’income,andplantingstructureof area and yield.The empirical results of total one show that:(1) the effect of total loans onagricultural output is remarkably stable reverse, which is different from the previousresearch. This is because that there exists long-term and general financial restrain inChinese rural financial market, rural finance being long-term neglected in the dualtransformation process, thus the rural areas’ performance not really improving whenthe total loans being delivered through the formal financial institutions channel; Butthe effect of total loans on the agricultural income is significant positive.(2) Theeffect of agricultural loans on agricultural output can be reflected in a form of twoperiods. That is to say, when current input of agricultural loans is more than the previous period, current agricultural output will be relatively reduced, which can beexplant for the constraint of natural system pattern in the rural financial market; On thewhile, the reaction of ratio of current total agricultural loans to the previous period onesto agricultural income is very significantly sensitive.(3) As a cross term of total loansand total agricultural loans, agricultural loan proportion can be used as a reference indexand, according to its change, to predict the expected input of three kind of agriculturalloans and the corresponding agricultural output. And the empirical results show that theeffect is significant; also, the empirical results of agricultural loan proportion onagricultural income show it’s the relative stable, significant and reverse.The empirical results of structure classification show that:(1) The total loans’ inputlead to obvious area planting structure change: in the case of food crops accountingbasically unchanged, economic crops’ proportion increase, which means that the totaleffect of loans to agricultural business performance is positive; on the aspect ofproduction structure, the results of total loans to the grain, economic crops and fruit arenot obvious, not sensitive and not significant.(2) There doesn’t exist obvious influencemechanism of total agricultural loans on the grain crops planting area; The inputincreasing of total agricultural loans does not make a significant production structurechange of the grain crops, economic crops and fruits these three kinds of plantings; Inshort, the total agricultural loans does not have obvious direct powerful influence oncrops’ structure changing.(3) On the aspect of planting area structure, agricultural loansproportion’ influence on grain crops, economic crops and fruit are significant, notsignificant and not significant; on the production structure, they are not significant, notsignificant and significant.Based on the above analysis, we come to conclusions and give out policysuggestions of strengthening financial support and pushing forward the reform of ruralfinancial institutions to promote farmers’ income and expand rural consumption demand.