Estimation Of Financial Revenues-Expenditures And Influencing Factor Analysis On Intercity Railway

With the improvement of city in China, the regional connection is closer and trip frequency is higher. To meet the need of the economic development and citizens’ living standard, it is an important to build city rail with smaller occupied area, lower energy consumption, higher capacity and efficiency. The revenue and expenditure of city rail have impact on construction and operation, so it is significant to improve intercity rail to do research on framework and calculation method of revenue and expenditure.This paper summarized the development of intercity railway, clarified the economic features and operation method, and proposed the revenue and expenditure calculation model of intercity rail in projects and companies with cases and finalized with sensitivity analysis on cost factors. The main points and conclusion of this paper are listed as following.(1) Intercity railway was a public transportation system, providing rail with high capacity, high speed and high density for cities and towns with dense population and tight economic regional relations. In the future, the intercity rail would be designed and built by local government with public welfare.(2) This paper divided financial analysis into project analysis and company analysis and dissected the revenue and expenditure in analysis. In project analysis, the main income was ticket payments. The outcome was divided into depreciation cost of infrastructure, financial expense, depreciation cost of train, operational expense, business tax and others. In company analysis, different operations had diversified revenues and expenditures, even the same operation had differences. This paper proposed the revenue and expenditure measurement modal with one case. Due to the model, the income of intercity railway was1,105,525,000Yuan, and the outcome was1,481,758,000Yuan, and the loss was376,233,000Yuan in2010in project analysis; the income of intercity rail was75,807,000Yuan, and the outcome was921,931,000Yuan, and the loss was163,861,000Yuan in2010in company analysis. The loss resulted from the depreciation and the cost of loan interest.(3) This paper conducted analysis on factors of financial payments which revealed the corresponding response to the change of one factor or more including passenger flow volume, fare rate, depreciation method, loan rate. In project analysis, increased passengers turnover quantity and increased ticket income resulted in incremental variable cost in operation and decreased loss. If the utilization rate of seat of the intercity railway increased to80%, the fare rate would be0.535yuan/person-km when reached breakeven; and the fare rate would be0.636yuan/person-km when the return on equity reached3%; it would be0.704yuan/person-km when the return on equity reached5%.