Research On Taiyuan Vegetable Price Fluctuation And Influence Factors

In recent years, the issue of farmers selling vegetables difficultly and residents buying dishes expensively is becoming increasingly prominent.On one hand, Basket affects the daily life of urban residents, on the other hand, it has a relationship with farmers’pocketbook and the stable development of the rural economy, both of these are important. Therefore, making vegetable price remain at a reasonable range, is not only good to motivate the enthusiasm of farmers, but also benefit to contribute a stable and healthy society. As the capital city of Shanxi Province, Taiyuan’s vegetable price is also the same ups and downs with the national "food basket". The phenomenon of low vegetable price hurting farmers and expensive food hurting people often occurs simultaneously or alternately appears in a short term. It has a serious impact to the vital interests of farmers and consumers. Therefore, to study the fluctuation on vegetable price in Taiyuan ,explore the features, law and influencing factors and analyze the policy to mitigate fluctuation on the vegetable price, are important to stabilize the vegetable price and improve the people’s living standard.Based on the specific circumstances of price volatility of Taiyuan in recent years, this article use qualitative and quantitative analysis method, theoretical method about price volatility, X12 seasonal adjustment model, H-P filter model, multiple linear regression model to analyze the price volatility characteristics, law, supply and demand factors of Taiyuan.This has shown that there are three types of vegetable prices volatility characteristics of Taiyuan, including "a valley a peak", "two peak two valley" and "no significant peak and valley-type"; Taiyuan vegetable price is rising slowly in a state of long-term, and exists significant seasonal and cyclical fluctuation; For the supply factors affecting vegetables price volatility of Taiyuan, the production price index of vegetable is greater than vegetable production, and also greater than the affected area of main origin area; For the demand factors affecting vegetables price volatility of Taiyuan, meat and poultry price index has a big leading role on vegetable price, Taiyuan resident population and the consumer price index followed. According to the research results, this article proposes policies to mitigate the vegetable price volatility of Taiyuan, including carrying out of the "basket" project to improve the urban self-sufficiency; reducing circulation and costs associated with logistics distribution; building price adjustment fund and subsidy system; strengthening natural disaster warning system; improving agricultural information service levels.