Measurement Of Land Range And Spatial-temporal Difference Analysis Of Coastal Zone In Liaoning Province Based On The "Lake Effect" Model

Coastal zone is one of the world’s most prosperous regions, which also has an important strategic role in economic development. But there is no agreed definition on the coastal zone in the world right now, which mainly reflected on the range of coastal land. Besides that the range of coastal land for existing and representative coastal zone is not enough, and the theoretical basis of the division method is not enough.Coastal zone definition to the land area is an important guarantee of coastal space planning,coastal zone comprehensive carrying capacity accurately assessed, play a decisive role in the research of coastal zone.Based on this background,with the concept of lake effect of physical geography and the theory of Bass new product diffusion model, constructed the "Lake effect" model,then referred to the concept of Western Economics, put forward the concept of the radiation force curve, the marginal rate of substitution of lake and the law of diminishing marginal rate of substitution of lake.Then this paper through a variety of parameter estimation methods of analysis contrast, selected Genetic Algorithm and 1stOpt software platform, as the parameter estimation method of "lake effect" model,and designed of the feasible quantitative method of coastal land range. Taking Liaoning Province as an example, the use of the population and economy panel data of 6 coastal cities in Liaoning Province from 2001 to 2012 and extraction of step for 1km circle area data by GIS,combining with the Gravity model,calculated coastal zone of the 6 coastal cities in Liaoning Province and did the temporal-spatial difference analysis to it.In addition, we use the different models to predict the Liaoning coastal range of 2013 to 2020. Through comparative analysis of the results, finally decided that the predicting results of Gompertz model is more accurate, more practical, and analyzed the spatial difference of the scope of the trend of coastal zone of Liaoning province. Research results show that: ①Bohai rim radiation driving force continues to grow, Liaoning Province coastal zone steadily over time to the inland expansion; ②The area with developed economy, coastal zone is more broad; ③Dalian and Yingkou City is the growth pole of Liaoning Province coastal zone; ④The next eight years Liaoning coastal zone will continue to expand inland and spatial differences will gradually shrink.