Simulation Of Land Use Change Scenarios Of Tangshan Coastal Zone Based On CLUE-S Model

LUCC, which has dual attributes of Nature and Humanities, is the concentrated reflection of Human activities and Natural environment, so it is the important component and core content of global environment change and has become the front and hot field of Modern geography. Coastal zone is the hot field of LUCC because its special Land and sea ecosystems environment. Taking the topographic map of 1956 and 1970s and TM of 1987, 2000 and 2005 as the data source and using 3S(RS,GIS,GPS),this paper studies the spatial and temporal characteristics of coastal zone of Tangshan during the past 50 years. It also uses the CLUE-S Model simulating the characteristic of LUCC in the next decade based on four different scenarios.The land use structure of coastal zone of Tangshan changed remarkably during the past 50 years. It transforms from other lands and the farmland as the main body in the early stage to the farmland and construction land as the main body. The proportion of farmland, construction land and other lands transforms from 34.67:6.19:59.13 of 1956 to 57.83:35.15:7.02 of 2005.Land use degree obviously enhances and land use synthetical index increases from 185.81 of 1956 to 320.63 of 2005. Land resources extension exploitation potential is nearly extincted. The change speed of land use type slows down. The transformation characteristic of each land use type is different from each other. To residential area land, industry and mining land and aquaculture land, transfer is bigger than exiting, but unexploited land and wetland is opposite. To farmland, garden plot and woodland, both transfer and exiting are much bigger.The CLUE-S Model can better simulate and forecast the LUCC of coastal zone of Tangshan. Based on the LUCC data of 2000, this paper chooses the following nine nature and social economy factors as the driving factors( distance to rural residential area, distance to town residential area, distance to rode, distance to river, distance to coastline, water table, agrotype, causes of landform, engineering geology condition)and simulating the land use type spatial pattern of 2005 using the CLUE-S Model. By contrasting to the interpretation data, it indicates that the correct simulation proportion is 88.95% and the Kappa index is 0.8711. These show the CLUE-S Model can simulate the LUCC of coastal zone based on small criterion. This paper simulates the land use pattern of 2015 based on the four scenarios: natural increase scenario, land structure optimization scenario, economic development scenario and ecological protection scenario. The result indicates that the LUCC exists obvious spatial difference during different scenarios.The innovations in this paper are the following:Applying CLUE-S Model in coastal zone for the first time,Choosing the driving factors which are accord with characteristic of coastal zone,...