Land Use Change Analysis And Modeling Prediction In Shanghai Coastal Zone In Recent 30 Years

The Yangtze River Delta is the region with the strongest comprehensive strength in our country,and the reform and opening up and economic and social development in the region have risen to the national strategy.The Shanghai coastal zone as s an important part of the Yangtze River Delta in recent 30 years,with the development and opening of Shanghai Pudong as the main line,has made great achievements in economic development,which leads to a result of land use change and has a certain impact on the sustainable development of the region.Therefore,this paper analyses land use change of Shanghai coastal zone and tries to build a model to predict the future development trend of its land use,which is of great practical significance to the rational development,utilization,management and protection of coastal land resources.This paper takes 7 remote sensing images of the Landsat series of Shanghai coastal zone in 1985-2015 as the data source,applies the object-oriented image information extraction technology to the process of coastline extraction and coastal land use classification,makes a quantitative analysis of land use change situation in the study area in recent 30 years,and builds a mathematical model to enhance the predictive ability of land change.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)Extraction and change analysis of Shanghai coastline using RS imagery.According to the process of object-oriented image segmentation,threshold extraction,edge detection and tide correction,this paper extracts the continental coastlines of Shanghai coastal zone in several years and collect statistics of the position,direction and length of Shanghai coastline change in recent 30 years.The results show that the change of Shanghai coastline is affected by both natural and man-made factors.The overall performance is shoreline extrapolation,coastal silting,and total length of coastline.(2)Land use classification and change detection in Shanghai coastal zone.The Shanghai coastal zone is divided into cultivated land,forest land,grassland,urban and rural construction land,port and dock land,traffic land,sea water,river and reservoir pit by dividing the classification system of Shanghai coastal zone,multi-scale image segmentation and classification rules.Pond and coastal tidal flat,and to change the results of land use classification in the study area.The results show that the land structure of the Shanghai coastal zone has always maintained the cultivated land as the main body.With the deepening of the reform and opening up and the urbanization process,the land use structure has been gradually increased and the cultivated land is gradually decreasing.(3)Land Use Prediction Model of Shanghai Coastal Zone.This paper discusses the principles and methods of land use forecast in Shanghai coastal zone,and makes a bold prediction of the future land use situation of Shanghai coastal zone by selecting the appropriate mathematical prediction model and using the classification results of different land use types as the original data series.The results show that the gray prediction model can grasp the main characteristics of the Shanghai coastal zone,and the forecast results can basically reflect the development trend of land use in Shanghai coastal zone.