The Research Of Financial Crisis Early Warning On China’s Manufactur Ingindustry Listed Companies Based On The Corporate Governance

The continuous development of market economy and economic globalization brought many development opportunities for Chinese enterprises, but also enormous challenges.Poor management, failure to adapt to changes in the external environment, the introduction of new national policy and other reasons are likely to make financial distress. Therefore, establishing financial crisis early warning model is of great significance., whether for managers to improve the management, or investors to invest more reasonablely, creditors to choose the debtor properly, stock market to regulate better, government to make the macro-control policies.Recent years, considering the non-financial factors such as corporate governance factor in the financial crisis early warning model has become a hot trend, but most of the previous studies only consider one of the three factors of corporate governance (board of directors, shareholders, managers), thus,lack of consideration of all corporate governance factors to the enterprise financial crisis. considering that past studies have shown that the form of action and strength of corporate governance factors in different industries are diverse significantly. So this paper choose the manufacturing listed companies which occupy the vast majority of listed companies as the research object, and build model through comprehensive consideration of the three factors of corporate governance.On the basis of reference to many domestic and foreign literature, this paper selected112manufacturing companies as samples in accordance with the ST and non-ST1:3pairing principle,and the period is from2008to2011.Choose15financial indicators as the initial financial study variables,which contain6aspects such as Solvency, additionally select9corporate governance variables as the initial corporate governance variables.After the non-parametric and multicollinearity test, indicators which aren’t significant or contain correlation are excluded, use the remaining indicators through SPSS to create the logistic models which contain only financial indicators,additionally the logistic models including both. Finally, comparatively analysis and forecast. Empirical results show:First, corporate governance variables can improve the prediction accuracy; Second, the more recent date from crisis is,the better prediction accuracy will be; Third, compensation of managers isn’t important indicator of the financial crisis early warning model.