Research On Finance Prediction Of Coal-fired Power Plants Based On System Dynamics

Power industry is the most important basic energy industry in the development of national economics. It is the development priorities of economic development strategy of every country in the world. Coal-fired electricity generation occupies an important position in our power structure, is the main form of thermal power generation. In recent years, with the adjustment of China’s electric power energy structure, the encouragement of new green energy development, the enhancement of the level of environmental protection, the competition of Coal-fired power plants have been increased. Early 2013, the double track of coal price had been canceled, the full market of the coal price is realized. In such a highly competitive, changes frequently market environment, making financial projections for coal-fired power plant in advance and making the right decisions judgment is an important way to enhance the competitiveness of coal-fired power plants, is the fundamental of coal-fired power plants obtaining survival in electricity market reform. Against the coal-fired power electricity commodity characteristics, using system dynamics method, this article build a coal-fired power plants financial forecasting model.Firstly, this paper describes the background and significance of the research,in-depth analysis of the current research financial projections and discuss the current situation in terms of the domestic application research of System Dynamics in the financial aspects. Based on the analysis of the basic theory of financial projections and dynamical systems, this paper establishes the financial forecasting index system of fired power plants, and divides the financial forecasting system into five parts:two-part electricity price subsystem, sales and receivables subsystem, the production cost subsystem, procurement and payment subsystem, financing investment subsystem, Through structural analysis of the various subsystems, the relationship between the indexes has been determined, and expressed by the equation. Finally,coal-fired plants financial forecasting model has been established, and with its empirical analysis, the results show that the model is scientific and reasonable. This paper provides a new research methods and ideas for coal-fired power plant financial projections.