Land Use Change Prediction Based On IDRISI-LCM Model

Nowadays, as social economy develops fast, human factors have a giant effect on land cover. It has created many problems, such as water loss and soil erosion,environmental pollution, cultivated land degeneration,biodiversity decrease, ecological unbalance and so on. In recent years, LUCC has become hot research topic for many researchers around the world. Zhuanghe city is Located in the Liaoning coastal economic belt. Zhuanghe social economy develops fast, and the land use in Zhuanghe city changes fast. Therefor the analysis and prediction of land use cover change in Zhuanghe city is very important for providing guiding role for reasonable spatial layout of regional development plan/the reasonable development utilization and management of the regional land resource.Taking the Zhuanghe city region in Liaoning province as the study area, the paper use the LCM model in IDRISI to do the research of land use prediction.The main content of the research include four parts as follows.First and foremost, make three map of land use by interpreting remote sensing images base on ENVI. Then, use LCM model analyze the change of land use in Zhuanghe city, and choose some factors for the model.Use MLP to make the transition potential maps.The accuracy rate achieves 77.8%, it is more than 75% and it means the model is good.Put in policy variables and predict the land use map of 2010.Thirdly, use the Validation panel to determine the quality of the prediction land use map in relation to a map of reality. It does this by running a 3-way crosstabulation between the later landcover map, the prediction map, and a map of reality. Use the VALIDATE and ROC panel in GIS Analysis to evaluate the prediction, the results displays the model of prediction is good.Last, use LCM model predict the land use map of 2020, and analyze the change of land use between 2010 and 2020.Give some advices of land planning to the government.The land use change contrastive analysis between 2010 and 2020 as follows:the sea area decreases 56.12 km2, and the loss turn into aquaculture. This is in accord with the plan of ocean development. The forest area adds 53.73 km2, most of the increment come from crop land. This is in accord with the policies that preserve forest. The crop area decreases 183.74 km2.Although the loss of crop has make contribution to forest and economic construction, but the area of crop need protection to make sure there is enough food for people.The building lot adds 88.57 km2, most of the increment is distributed along coastal zone.The government should strengthen the regulation and monitoring, make rational planning, make rational use of resources, take the sustainable development path.