Research On Life Cycle Cost Estimation Model Of Power Grid Construction Project

Along with our national economy progress and the growth of electricity consumption year after year, the intensity of grid construction project and the amount of construction investment has increased swiftly to meet the power demand gap. However, the life cycle of the grid construction project is so long that the cost of the operation stage is several times of the amount of investment. How to accurately estimate the life cycle cost of power grid construction project become the key of cost management, thus the research on the life cycle cost of power grid construction project is of great economic significance.This paper summarizes and analyses the domestic and international research status of cost management and the practice of theory, then introduces the methods of estimation and the related concepts of the life cycle cost, and presents the current cost management and problems of power grid construction project. Combined with the characteristics of power grid construction project cost, this paper divides the life cycle into four stage which includes capital investment stage, operation stage, maintenance stage and scrapped stage, and puts forward two estimation models. The first model is on the basis of traditional engineering cost model based on historical data and equipment parameters of similar project. To build this model, this paper firstly analyzes the stages of the cost structure in detail, secondly puts forward the estimation method of each stage, and finally draws the life cycle cost estimation model of power grid construction project by summarizing the cost estimation of each stage. The second model pays more attention to the uncertainty of the life cycle of cost of power grid construction project, and uses the Delphi law and experts to receive the project cost estimation of each stage. Then this model estimates the reliability and the construction cost by using cloud model theory, and constructs the life cycle cost estimation model of power grid construction project based on cloud model and three parameter interval grey number by transforming the cost cloud into three parameters interval grey number to make up for the complexity of four fundamental operations. This paper finally makes comparison between the advantages and disadvantages of the two models and gives the applicable scope to provide a positive reference for the life cycle cost management of power grid construction project.