Energy Policy Response Behavior Studies Based On The Dynamic CGE Model

In June 2014, Xi Jinping, as the president of People’s Republic of China, issued an important speech and proposed to promote energy consumption and supply revolution, to promote energy system revolution, and to build a sound energy system. In the process of energy revolution, energy policy would be a significant driving force. In recent years, China’s energy consumption has been in an increasing trend and environmental pollution has been increasingly serious and PM2.5 has been continuously risen, therefore, the contradiction of economic development, energy resources and environmental problem is becoming increasingly prominent. Some binding targets have been promoted by the Chinese governments:to decrease the carbon emissions’ intensity by 40%～50% by the end of 2020. In order to maintain healthy economic development and accomplish the tasks of energy conservation and emission reduction, the rational energy policy and energy policy response behavior studies are of very important practical significance.Firstly, this paper analyses the customers’ energy consumption structure and characteristics. Secondly, energy policies are defined as the complication of energy prices, taxes and subsidies policy and then five energy policy scenarios are designed. Thirdly, the customers’ energy policy response model with the target of the total social benefit maximization is established, as well as ancillary consumers’ benefit model, producers’ benefit model and social model. Then the customers’ response behaviors to a carbon tax, electricity sales pricing mechanism and the renewable energy fund policy are explored. The results show that when the change rates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are ±2%,±5% and the renewable energy supply structure ratio is 7%, the more reasonable carbon tax ranges from 10 to 20 Yuan/ton, and the optimal coefficient pricing mechanism is more conducive to maximize the total social benefit. As for the overall energy policies optimization, if the upper limit of change rate in CPI is 2.2%, in the short term, the renewable energy fund policy could be unchanged, but in the long term, the fund policy must be adjusted. In short, government should primarily take measures about energy prices and taxes policies to regulate the energy market, and then combine with energy subsidy policies in order to maintain social stability and sustainable economic development, and to achieve the strategic objectives of energy conservation and emission reductions.