Analysis The Economy Of The Arctic Northeast Passage Based On The International Shipping Cost

Shipping enterprise should consider whether the passage is feasible, and if the pas sage has economic benefits before opening the new passage. Previous studies have sho-wn that navigation in the Arctic Northeast Passage is feasible, technology is no longer t-he factor which constrain the navigation, but shipping enterprise have not formed large scale navigation in the Arctic yet. The main reason of this phenomenon is the economic problem. The opening, selection and formation of the Arctic passage have significant inf-luences on shipping enterprise. The decision makers of shipping enterprise must consid-er the cost and benefit which generated by the new passage carefully, so it is important to analyze the economy of the Arctic.In order to achieve the above purpose, this paper classified the total shipping cost based on the international shipping cost, and established the operation economic evaluation index model to evaluate the economy of the two passages. Firstly, this paper established the computable mathematical model according to each cost of the international shipping cost classification. And this paper provided the economic factors difference analysis of each cost based on the mathematical model of each cost.Secondly, on the basis of navigation data of the Arctic Northeast Passage which provided by the Russian Northern Sea Route Administration, this paper analyzed the category, quantity and rank of ships which go through the Arctic Northeast Passage, and established a gray prediction model in order to determine the navigable period of the Arctic Northeast Passage; this paper presented the ships which are suitable for the Arctic Northeast Passage according to the seaworthiness analysis of different ice condition and different ice strengthening notation ship, and analyzed the ship operation elements of the Arctic Northeast Passage.Finally, according to the analysis of operation factors of the Arctic Northeast Passage, this paper provided the operation scheme of the Arctic Northeast Passage, established the operation economic evaluation index model of the Arctic Northeast Passage and traditional Passage, evaluated the economy of the two passage using this model, and also analyzed the final results.According to the results, the Arctic Northeast Passage has distinct economy advantages compared with the traditional passage and the operation economy advantage of ice strengthening ship for Arc4 and Arc5 is more obvious in the Arctic Northeast Passage, therefore they can be used as the main ship in the Arctic Northeast Passage. This paper can provide support for shipping enterprise in order to take advantage of the Arctic Northeast Passage, and provided the basis for shipping enterprise reasonably selecting the ice strengthening rank of ships in order to have better service for Arctic navigation strategy of China.