Strategy On Chinese Arctic Energy Development Under The Background Of The Opening Of The Arctic Passage

Energy is an important material resource of human survival and social progress and it is a new chip of national stability development and progress. With the rapid development of economy, China's energy consumption has entered a period of rapid growth. Represented by oil, gas, coal,energy contradiction between supply and demand becomes more and more obvious. The import of energy from the international market is greater and greater. Energy has become the bottleneck of restricting China's economic development. At the same time, the arctic region,which has huge energy,has a great potential as a new energy supply. Look from the reserves, the arctic's energy reserves are comparable to the Middle East. From the perspective of transportation, the opening of the arctic passage can provide convenience for the arctic energy outward transportation. This article selects arctic passage and energy development as the research object; explore Chinese arctic energy development strategy under the background of the opening of the arctic passage.This paper mainly has three core parts. The first part focuses on the prospect of arctic passage and introduces the basic natural conditions of the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage. This part selects sea ice which is the main factors of affecting navigation, using statistical data and image data respectively analyze the extent and intensity changes of sea ice, and the results show that sea ice extent present the downward trend for the same month. In September, the sea ice had the greatest reduction. The dates of the sea ice extent minimum annual gradually in advance. The change of sea ice extent seasons showed a downward trend, droping fastest in summer, for autumn, winter and spring in turn. Different densities of sea ice area is showing a decreasing trend over time, the higher the intensity of the trend of the sea ice to melt, the more obvious. It indicate that the arctic sea ice extent and densities is reduced on the time series and the signs of accelerated change, the change of the arctic sea ice is more and more conducive to the opening of the arctic passage.The second part mainly analyzes the arctic passage under the background of China's demand for energy in the arctic. Firstly,this part analyze China's energy production and consumption status from the perspective of China. It concludes that the domestic keeps the balance between supply and demand of supply and demand energy such as coal, natural gas, but the supply and demand gap of petroleum energy is big. This part uses the GM(1, 1) model to forecast oil import dependence in the next decade, and the results show that China's oil imports continue to increase in the future ten years, China's oil imports by 2024 to reach 776 million tons, oil import dependence degree aggravating, oil import dependence to be more than 90%.Secondly,by comparing China's current oil imports area and the arctic area, it concludes that the arctic region as China's new energy import and development has the advantage of stable political situation and transportation safety. Finally, through the analysis of the advantage of distance that transport the arctic energy draw that under the background of arctic passage China's energy development is very necessary.The third part is the most important part in this paper. This part uses the quantitative SWOT model judging the strategic direction of China arctic energy development. Firstiy, this part gets the internal strengths and weaknesses, external opportunities and threats of strategic key factors by analyzing China's internal and external development environment of arctic energy. Secondly, through the application of extension analytic hierarchy process(AHP),it concludes the importance of the strategic key and the calculation of strength of strategic key factors. Finally, according to the strategic azimuth angle ?=175.51°and strategic intensity ?=0.443, it determines that China's arctic energy development should be taken the actively type strategy. This paper puts forward some suggestions based on the results of the arctic of China's energy development strategy.