The Economic Analysis And Sharing Rate Prediction Of The Arctic Passage

Currently, the global is becoming warmer, and the arctic sea ice observed by relative satellite of Snow and Ice Data Center is rapidly melting. The full opening of the Arctic Passage becomes a reality. The Arctic Ocean adjoins the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Compared to the traditional routes, the Arctic Passage can shorten the distance and reduce the cost on sea among the Asia, Europe and America more greatly and prompt to the economic development, which is very important to the economy and shipping. However, because of the lack of marine infrastructure, the legal framework and practical navigation experience, the Arctic Passage still exists some dangers.Therefore, between the Arctic Passage and traditional routes including the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal, It’s a critical question to judge which is a better choice for commercial shipping. Therefore, this paper takes Arctic Passage as the research object,analyzing the voyage economy and predicting transportation sharing rate.In order to achieve the research purpose, firstly, this study begins by describing the background and significance, summing the research status of Arctic Passage at home and abroad, and briefly introducing to the content and framework of this paper.Secondly, the natural situation, sailing circumstance and navigation prospect are introduced, which makes sure that shipping in the Arctic Passage is feasible, which lay the foundation for the article. Thirdly, the economic evaluation index of ship and shipping cost structure are introduced,then a detailed analysis of cost parameters that affect the economy of the Arctic Passage is carried out. It lays the theoretical foundation for the follow-up study. Fourthly, taking Shanghai- Rotterdam port as an example, this paper establishes the computable mathematical model and then compares the composition of the cost each shipping line using the cost analysis method during the sailing. It is found that the fuel cost, ice breaking-pilotage cost and ship cost are the main factors affecting the voyage economy of the Arctic Passage, and then analysis the three factors simply. Finally,on the basis of the above cost results,the discrete choice model, which named Logit model, is established, whose data are collected by questionnaire, to calculate the sharing rate on the sea of the traditional route and the Arctic Passage. And it’s believed that the sharing rate of Arctic Passage in the freight market will become higher, which is very important.This research about voyage economy of the Arctic Passage, to some extent, can provide a useful reference to assess the Arctic Passage for a shipping company.