China’s Photovoltaic Industry Trade Safety Evaluation

In recent years, the global photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly. Under the international background of that the developed countries have issued photovoltaic industry support policies, the photovoltaic industry have been growing rapidly in our country. Today China has become the largest country in photovoltaic production and international business. However, with the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis, the global economy becomes increasing weak. Developed countries are cutting domestic photovoltaic subsidies. At the same time, China’s trading partners, especially Europe and the United States, launched the double reverse investigation. Then China’s photovoltaic industry trade safety issues highlighted.First of all, this paper set up an evaluation index system of China’s photovoltaic industry trade safety based on intra-industry trade theory, industry security theory, strategic trade theory and competitive advantage theory, combining the reference for other scholars on the study of national trade safety evaluation. The status quo of photovoltaic industry in our country and feasibility of index data are also taken into consideration. The evaluation index system of China’s photovoltaic industry trade safety consists of participation in international markets, international political and economic relations and the country’s trade policy influence to evaluate three aspects.Secondly, use principal component analysis and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate China’s photovoltaic industry trade security. The 2003-2012 China’s photovoltaic industry trade data are taken into evaluation. The result includes three principal components. The final comprehensive score of evaluation by means of principal component analysis is 0.69,0.69,0.64,0.36,0.11,0.72,0.14,0.06,0.82, 0.48.The final comprehensive score shows that during 2003-2012 China’s trade safety evaluation of photovoltaic industry is relatively stable and in 2007 China’s photovoltaic industry trade security highlighted. The downward trend is especially clear in 2008 and 2011.Use the analytic hierarchy process to get our photovoltaic industry trade safety evaluation of the comprehensive scores of 0.33,0.10,0.11,0.14, 0.17,0.28,0.23,0.20,0.23,0.07. The result proves that during 2003-2008, trade security status decline year by year. In 2009 and 2010, it improved a little. In 2011, it appeared a significant decline. Two kinds of evaluation method for the photovoltaic industry trade safety evaluation trend are basically the same, basically according with the reality.Finally, according to the result of our photovoltaic industry trade safety evaluation of the empirical analysis, combining the current situation of the development of photovoltaic industry in our country, the advice of how to increase our photovoltaic industry trade security are given, including promoting Chinese photovoltaic industry technology level, coping with the international trade disputes and expanding the domestic consumption market.