The Study Of The Sustainable Development Of Marine Fishery In Shandong Province Based On Synergetics Model

As one of the biggest marine fishery province,Shandong Province possesses suitable climate conditions and high quality of coastline. Marine fishery occupies an important position in national economy and is an competitive industry of rural economy development in Shandong Province.It plays a major role in adjusting the industrial structure of the countryside,guaranting the food security and promoting market stability. However,marine fishery industry belongs to the resources dependent industry,there are many ecological and environmental problems that hinder its sustainable development in the process of development and utilization of marine fishery resources.At the international level,the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea makes the rules and regulations of 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone.China and Japan,South Korea signed new agreement on fisheries.These cause some difficulties such as the shrinkage of the marine fishing area,the standstill of the production, which are the origin of the affection on sustainable development. specific to Shandong Province, with the tightening supplies of marine fishery resources and deterioration of environment pollution,low content of technology and worse base of information technology in mariculture, the scrap and buy back scheme of fishing vessels,the project of fishing industrial transfer,these bring the challenges on sustainable development.Therefore,on the basis of former achievements,the paper analyses the sustainable development of marine fishery industry by the methods of theoretical and instantiation research. It includes the historical changes,development status and problems.The the history of marine fisheries can divided into three stages:period of resume and adjustment, period of tortuous development,period of prosperity.then analyze the status and existing problems of every stages of marine fishery development. On this basis, the restrictive factors for the sustainable development of marine fishery is divided into two parts of the external factors and internal factors. External factors includ the government regulation and policy of ecological factors. Internal factors including all kinds of Marine fishery production elements, ocean motor boats,marine fishery Labour,fish port terminal and so on. This article laid a theoretical basis for empirical analysis.The logistic growth model of Shandong marine fishery is used to be estimated by the nonlinear least squares.It can aquire the development of marine fisheries structure mutation point,the growth turning point appears in 1992.The development of marine fishery industry, actually,could be divided into two phases since 1979. The status of sustainable development is denoted by application of three indexes including mariculture area, power of fishing boats and labor force. On the basis of the gray relational analysis for the three indexes, the correlation between each other are all greater than 0.55.It prove that there are certain relationship between state variables. The relevance of the state variables are not the same, they have the inhomogeneity, positive correlation, irreversibility, etc,other than simple linear relationship between cause and effect. The state variables are different degree of impact on the development of marine fishery before 1992 evolution patterns and direction. So they can be as co-evolution analysis variables for the sustainable development of Marine fisheries of shandong province.Then the paper explored the order parameter by synergetic theory. Before the turning point,the smallest relaxation coefficient is the marine power motor boats, r=0.1003. After the inflection point, the smallest relaxation coefficient is the mariculture area, r=0.3302. The calculation results show that the main order parameter influencing the sustainable development of Marine fisheries of shandong province has tranformed from the marine power motor boats to the mariculture area.The development pattern of marine fishery gradually tend to be sustainable.The result indicate that the Shandong marine fishery has transformed from extensive unsustainable development pattern to the second phase of the intensive sustainable development mode.It also prove that the "Double Control" measures on motor fishing vessels is scientific as well as to the ocean fisherman continue to promote the "Fishing Industrial Transfer" policy.The conclusions suggest that the order parameter has transformed the power of fishing boats to the mariculture area. Finally several suggestions and opinions were put forward for the reasonable exploitation and protection of the marine fishery resources.