Study On The Marine Fishery Resources In Shandong Province Based On Ecological Footprint

Shandong Province is one of the major marine fishery provinces in China. Its unique natural environment and geographic location offer Shandong Province rich marine fishery resources, giving Shandong Province great developing potential in marine fishery resources. In recent years, thanks to the implementations of "Sea of Shandong", "Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone" and other marine development strategies, Shandong Province has made brilliant achievements in fishery economy, being in the first place nationwide in both marine fishery production and economic benefits for years. Shandong Province focuses to the development and utilization of marine fishery resources, consolidates the foundation status of marine fishery, actively participates in the national policy of "maritime power", and introduces advanced fishing skills and equipment, which play a very important role in the development of fishery economy and coastal cities. However, the great speed of development in fisheries exposes many serious problems needed to be solved. Increasing decline of fishery resources, destruction of the ecological environment, reduction of the income of most fishermen and other issues have seriously affected the persistent economic development in fisheries in Shandong Province. Therefore, it is the most important to protect the marine fishery resources and maintain fishery ecological environment for the persistent development in marine industry in Shandong Province, and it is also the requirement for harmonious development in the dimensions of economy, society and ecology.Firstly, this paper describes the background and significance of this research, then determines the theories and models used in the subject by analyzing relevant concepts, theories and models. The third part analyzes the state of the marine fishery resource in Shandong Province and the feasibility of calculating it with the ecological footprint model. The fourth part creates a new ecological account and establishes the ecological footprint model for marine fishery resources, and at the same time, determines the relevant parameters in the model. This paper divides the ecological account of marine fishery resources into four sub-accounts:inshore fishing, offshore fishing, seawater aquaculture and pollution loss, then the sub-models respectively; and also divides the ecological carrying capacity of marine fishery resources into two areas:coastal area and offshore area. After determining the model and parameters, Chapter five brings the collected data of Marine Fisheries Resources in Shandong Province in the years between 2005 and 2013 into the models to calculate, acquiring results of ecological footprint for each sub-account and ecological carrying capacity respectively, and then gets the ecological status in the marine fishery resources in Shandong by contrasting the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity. This paper forecasts the next five year’s ecological status in Shandong Province using ARIMA model. The results are:(1) There are still ecological surplus in the marine fishery resources in the years between 2005 and 2013 in Shandong Province, but the number kept decreasing from 2005 to 2013, reducing nearly 24%.(2) Recently, the offshore fishery ecological deficit situation in Shandong Province was grim, and the deficit was increasing year by year, which should be listed as a key problem to be solved in marine fishery management in Shandong Province.(3) By analyzing the GDP ecological footprint of marine fishery resources, the result shows that the utilization of marine fishery resources has increased year by year.(4) By calculating the data of the ecological surplus in Shandong Province using the ARIMA models, the forecast shows that ecological surplus in the next five years will continue declining, which means the marine fishery ecological situation in Shandong Province is not optimistic.This paper proposes suggestions for sustainable development and utilization of marine fishery in Shandong Province according to the present problems, hoping to provide practical reference for the development of marine fisheries economy and sustainable utilization of marine fishery resources.