Coupling Analysis Between Agricultural Input And Output In Ninghua County

Since ancient times, the agricultural development is the hotspot of our livelihood, agriculture as the foundation and pillar of industries and services related to the development of harmonious society. Now, one of the most important problems in our agricultural development is the coordination between agricultural resources input and output efficiency, so the problem which is the urgent need to investigate and solve in China’s agricultural development is how to improve the efficiency of the use of agricultural resources and the coupling between input and output to maximize efficiency of resources into profits as much as possible.The paper takes Ninghua County in Fujian province as the study area. Building agricultural input and output evaluation systems are to discuss the variation tendency about agricultural input level and agricultural output level from 2001 to 2012 in Ninghua, study the agricultural input level and output level difference between each village and town and the main influence factors. Then combine the agricultural input with output to research and analysis time correlation and spatial difference by using coordination degree model. According to the existing statistics of grain and main industrial crop production, predict the development trend of the main crops yield by GM (1,1) forecast model and metabolism GM (1,1) forecast model in next few years. At last, put forward suggestions to stabilize agricultural development.The tendency of the agricultural input level and output level is upward from 2001 to 2012 in Ninghua, the agricultural input level is from 0.6713 up to 0.9821, and the agricultural output level is from 0.4653 up to 0.9889. The trends of the agricultural input level and output level are almost the same in 2001,2007,2012 in 16 villages and towns. The agricultural input level and output level are quite different in 2012 in 16 villages and towns; especially the input level of Anyuan Township is the highest (0.9273), but Pingzhi Township is the lowest (0.2029); the output level of Hucun Town is the highest (0.8034), but Helong Town is the lowest (0.2866). The comprehensive level of the agricultural input and output increased significantly, the coordination development situation become better and better from 2001 to 2012 in Ninghua. From the point of the coordinated development degree of type, the hysteretic type is the agricultural output from 2001 to 2012, but the hysteretic type changed to the agricultural input in 2012. The agricultural input and agricultural output coordination development changed little in 2001,2007,2012 in 16 villages and towns, especially in 2001 and 2007. In 2012, the comprehensive development level has some improvement, and the coordination degree levels tend to close, which are between 0.9 to 1.0. The coordination levels include primary coordination, intermediate coordination, good coordination and quality Coordination between these villages and towns in three years. In 2012, the coordination levels are more up than 0.9. However the comprehensive development level and the coordinated development degree have big difference in each villages and towns, such as Anyuan Township gets 0.8265 and 0.8956, Pingzhi Township gets 0.2535 and 0.4834 respectively, the coordinated development degree of most towns are primary coordination and barely coordination. Predicting the overall food production declined linearly by GM (1,1) forecast model and metabolism GM (1,1) forecast model from 2013 to 2020 in Ninghua, the falling range is 8.00%, on the contrary, the overall economic crop production are linear upward, the rising range is 22.23%.