Analysis And Forecast Of Tourism Efficiency Of Interprovincial Forest Parks In China Based On System Coupling

As an important representative of forest resources in China,forest parks are also important places for forest tourism.In recent years,with the increasing attention of the state to the construction of ecological civilization and the increasing demand for forest tourism,China's forest parks have developed rapidly in scale.But in general,the rapid development is mainly attributed to the input of the state,and the overall management eff-iciency of forest parks is not high.In addition,the extensive application of DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis)in the study of tourism efficiency leads to denying the interaction between input and output and ignoring the dynamic development of forest parks,which is not in line with the actual situation.Therefore,from the point of view of system coupling,this paper combines Literature Analysis,Entropy Weight Method,TOPSIS and other methods to analyze and forecast the tourism efficiency of interprovincial forest parks in China,in order to coordinate the relationship between the increase of investment and benefit growth of forest parks.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)From 2003 to 2017,the overall investment in forest parks in China was small,and there was no significant difference in annual investment;the input of forest parks in the eastern coastal areas was more than that in the inland areas of China and the west,and the input of provinces and cities with low level of urbanization was more than that of provinces and cities with high level of urbanization.(2)From 2003 to 2017,the overall tourism benefit of forest parks in China was relatively low,and the tourism benefit of provinces with rich forestry resources was higher and had a more obvious trend with it.Tourism benefit of eastern coastal provinces was higher but decreased year by year.Tourism benefit of western areas with underdeveloped economy and eastern provinces with higher urbanization was the worst.(3)From 2003 and 2017,there was a strong interaction between input and output systems of forest parks in the whole country and provinces,and this relationship also showed a trend of fluctuation rise.(4)From 2003 to 2017,the input-output coupling coordination degree of forest parks in China was low,and the overall situation was slightly imbalanced.Only one third of the 31 provinces and municipalities had ideal input-output coupling coordination degree.The main reason for this phenomenon was that tourism output lagged behind tourism input.(5)From 2003 to 2017,the change of input-output coupling coordination degree of national forest parks was mainly to maintain stability and fluctuation rise.The:input and output of forest parks in eastern coastal provinces and central provinces with rich forestry resources were in a state of mutual promotion and promotion all the year round.The input and output of forest parks in western provinces with backward economy and municipalities with higher urbanization level in eastern China were in a state of mutual antagonism for a long time.(6)From 2018 to 2020,the input-output coupling coordination degree of national forest parks will continue the previous trend of stability and slow rise.However,the spatial distribution will gradually change from the overall pattern of "high degree in the east and low degree in the west" to pattern of "one superpower and several major powers".