Export Potential Analysis Of China’s Transportation Service Trade

With the development of merchandise trade, China’s transportation service trade has been expanded, but it also has the problem of large trade deficits. The study of export potential of China’s transportation service is conductive to realize the coordinated development of export and import, to launch extensive international cooperation with other countries, to promote the industrial restructuring.The development of China’s transportation service trade is consistent to the world trend basically. In terms of export quantity, China’s transportation service trade has increased obviously, but the trade deficits have extended as well. In terms of export structure, China’s transportation service trade relys on maritime transport and a few developed countries. Meanwhile, China’s transportation service trade shows lower competitiveness.Applying the Gravity Model, the paper analyses export potential of China’s transportation service trade. The result demonstrates export quantity is positively related to GDP, openness of transportation service trade, labor productivity of service export sectors and is negatively related to tariff and declaration complexity. According to the estimates, China is lack of trade, which means China’s transportation service trade has broad space for development.Applying Constant Market Shares Analysis, the paper studied factors which affect the dynamic growth of China’s transportation service trade. The results shows demand effect, overall competitiveness effect, product competitiveness effect and net cross effect have positively promoted the development of the trade, while structure effect and dynamic cross effect have opposite functions, which means the structure of China’s transportation service trade is not correspond to world market to some extent.By the comparison between China and America, the paper proves America has higher GDP, higher labor productivity of service export sectors, lower openness of transportation service and lower trade tariff. These create the difference of development potential between the two countires. Besides, according the the Constant Market Shares Analysis, the difference of world’s import demand effect causes the unequal export growth of the two countries. Overall, Amenrica’s transportation service trade is better adapted to world market.In addition, China has problems in construction of infrastructure, culture of talented person, domestic demand and industry structure. In order to solve the problems, China should issue policies and laws to guarantee commodity supply. Furthermore, there should be a effective industry chian of transportation service trade. Transport companies should also formulate effective business strategy so as to adapt themselves to the transformation of transportation service trade.