An Analysis Of China's Financial Service Export Potential Based On Extended Gravity Model

Since the reform and opening up,along with the development of economic globalization,China's financial services trade has made great progress.At present,China's service trade exports rank fifth in the world,but its advantages mainly focus on traditional areas,while the export of high value-added emerging services represented by financial services is still in a weak position.China's financial services trade accounts for a small proportion of domestic service trade,financial services trade import and export deficit is large,fluctuations are not stable,and the gap between financial services development and developed countries is very large.At present,a few developed countries still monopolize the international financial services market,coupled with the rise of “reverse globalization” and trade protectionism in some developed economies,which poses a major challenge to China's development of financial services trade exports.In this context,it is of great practical significance and theoretical value to study how to enhance the export of China's financial services trade by tapping potential.Through the application of the Dildorf model,the theory of scale economy trade,the strategic trade theory,the similarity theory of demand preference and the theory of production sector and service chain,this paper first discusses the theoretical level of financial service trade export.On this basis,the current situation of China's financial service trade exports is studied from the perspective of total import and export volume and market structure.Then,based on the extended gravity model,this paper conducts an empirical study on the export potential of China's financial services trade by adopting 891 bilateral financial service export samples from 32 reporting economies around the world.The research results on the export potential of the target market show that the economic scale of the import and export sides,the geographical distance between the two countries,the financial freedom of the two countries,whether the two countries have signed RTAs related to service trade,etc.Exports have a significant impact.Generally speaking,there is a phenomenon of “export shortage” in China's financial service trade export,which also means that there is still great potential for developing exports.From the perspective of market structure,China's major financial services export markets(including Hong Kong,Denmark,Luxembourg,etc.)are generally overtraded,while small-scale export markets are generally under-traded.In the future,China will still face severe challenges in the export of financial services to major trading partners.At the end of the paper,the relevant strategies and suggestions are put forward from the three levels of state,industry and enterprise.