The Development Of Manufacturing PMI In Anhui Province

As a set of international and comprehensive economic monitoring indication system, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is widely applied in the world’s major countries and regions owing to its timely publication and accurate predictions of economic trends. At present, the research on the preparation of the manufacturing PMI is mainly at the national level, the preparation of the regional PMI is still in the exploratory stage.In this paper, the development of manufacturing PMI in Anhui province is studied. Firstly, based on documentary analysis method, this paper summarizes the related research of manufacturing PMI by analyzing the present situation from domestic and abroad; secondly, the main study focus on the empirical analysis of the relationship between China’s manufacturing PMI and macroeconomic climate through descriptive research methods, qualitative and quantitative phase analysis method, the paper builds VAR model to get the causal relationship between them, the conclusion explains the necessity of establishing Anhui manufacturing PMI and then analyzes the feasibility of the development of manufacturing PMI; thirdly, using experience summary and inductive method to construct the indication system of Anhui manufacturing PMI and design the questionnaire of PMI; fourthly, research on the sampling plan of Anhui manufacturing PMI, using comparative analysis to determine the sampling method, and then select the sample enterprises of Anhui Manufacturing PMI as well as completing the core content of index development to lay the foundation and guarantee for the survery data collection and index report, then make a further implementation for the development of Anhui manufacturing PMI, finally, this paper summarizes the research conclusions, deficiencies and then proposes the further research direction.The main contributions of this paper lie in building the VAR model to make an empirical analysis on PMI and macroeconomic, show the PMI’s function of predicting the economy; constructs the indication system of Anhui Province manufacturing PMI, confirm the sampling method and further implementation, it will make the supplement for the study of China’s manufacturing PMI system, and provide a reference for the preparation of the manufacturing PMI in other regions.