A Study On The Trade Potential Of Goods Trade Between China And Kazakhstan

After the global financial crisis, which broke out in 2008, the world economy experienced historic changes into a prolonged downturn phase. Meanwhile, because of Central Asia,s geographical location and its stage of economic development, its strategic position and economic status are rising rapidly. To seek an opportunity to recovery in post-crisis economic, the world’s major economies have begun to seek inter-regional economic cooperation. Regional economic cooperation is the main form of cooperation between the current global economy, and its manifestations are mainly regional trade, therefore, trade cooperation with Central Asia has become the focus between the world’s major economies. Faced with such a fierce war game, bilateral trade in goods between China and the most representative country in Central Asian- Kazakhstan become increasingly important significance. Since the end of 1991 independent Kazakhstan, China and Kazakhstan had establish a good relationship in economic and trade exchanges, bilateral trade in goods between these two countries continues to improve. Nonetheless, bilateral trade in goods between the two countries still have something to research.This article briefly describes respective international trade in goods condition of the two countries in 2014, then describes the bilateral trade size, growth rate, trade balance, trade commodity structure and made a detailed analysis of specific trade products, analysis that China and Kazakhstan bilateral trade in goods in good shape. Subsequently. The this article selects two indices, namely Revealed comparative advantage index(RCA) and Trade complementarity index(TCI), study the complementary of bilateral trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan. The results show that China and Kazakhstan trade in goods have strong complementarities between two countries. Then, this article introduced all likely affecting facts to the bilateral trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan to the gravity model equation, such us geographical distance between the two countries, the gross domestic product(GDP), the number of people between the two countries(P), the exchange rate between RMB and tenge and the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO), using IBM SPSS Statistics 20.0 establish optimal bilateral trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan, finally come out, that China’s GDP(GDP) and the RMB exchange rate against the tenge have most significant affect to the bilateral trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan. Then, using the optimal gravity model equation,which established on bilateral trade potential between China and Kazakhstan goods estimates, in most years goods trade between China and Kazakhstan is basically in the best condition, but there is still a need to continue to expand conclusions. Finally, based on the results of a series of theoretical research and empirical analysis, this article from a economics angle bring up to national, regional, and business, corporate policy to further expand the scale of bilateral trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan.