The Analysis Of SINO-US Trade Unbalance Based On The Model Of System Dynamics

The SINO-US bilateral trade imbalance has always been a key issue studied by experts and scholars. After all these years, we choose the analytic approa ch of qualitative and quantitative to probe the reason but lack of analyze f or political c ontext and its innate operating me chanism.Meanwhile, the traditional economical theory for this imbalance’s interpretive competence is poor and the tr ue facts are completely opposite. According to this aspect, to truly explain the factors that caused the imbalance This paper has set a model based on the t heory of System Dynamics to analyze the main elements of the imbalance so as to conduct the qualitative and quantitative analysis for seeking the essence of SINO-US bilateral imbalance from the whole.This paper has put the introduction,main content, approach frame and literature review in the first part. Informative statistic data have been used by displaying the current sit uation of SINO-US trade imbalance. Then, the paper explain the reason for take the anal ysis approach of System Dynamics as well as give a introduction of the method., and the build of this systemic dynamics model as to the imbalance trade between US and China to truly explain the factors that caused the imbalance. This paper has provided a completely new systemic dynamics model to combine all the main factors as well as it can be, These main factors can mainly cut and conclude as four subsystems: Dollar hegemony cause-effect subsystem; Tertiary industry statistical discrepancy cause-effect subsystem; virtual product export cause-effect subsystem; Saving theory cause-effect subsystem. The definition of "oedema phenomenon" has been f irstly used in illustrating the virtual product of US.After the above explanati on, by choosing the US FD I and Southeast Asia as subjects, through the building of flow graph,this paper co nduct the qualitative analysis for both factors, then take the advantage of calculate model to study the results. Finally, this paper give the conclusion include three main aspect: Firstly, The SINO-US bilateral trade imbalance will continue to increase in the pre dictable future. Secondly, The SINO-US bilateral trade imbalance ar e the results caus ed by various factors.Thirdly,the US ha s gain the most benefit from the SINO-US bilateral trade. For the last part,this paper provide the suggestions as a whole.