Study On The Influencing Factors Of The Cost Of Sino-US Bilateral Trade In Services

With the gradual upgrading of world industrial structure,the world economy has entered the era of service economy.The volume of trade in services between the United States and China ranks second in the world.Bilateral trade in services has an important impact on the development of trade in services between the two countries and even the world.At present,the warming of Sino-US trade frictions brings challenges to the development of Sino-US bilateral trade in services.From the perspective of trade cost,this paper makes an analysis of Sino-US bilateral service trade in order to take appropriate measures to reduce the cost of Sino-US bilateral service trade and promote the healthy development of Sino-US bilateral service trade.Based on this,this paper first analyses the current situation of Sino-US trade in services,and finds that Sino-US cooperation and friction in trade in services go hand in hand.In addition,the total volume of service trade in the United States is large,the structure is reasonable,and there are many surplus departments;while the total volume of service trade in China is also large,but the structure is not reasonable,and there are many deficit departments.At present,although China-US bilateral trade in services has certain competitiveness,it still focuses on complementarity.Then,using Novy's(2013)relative trade model,this paper calculates the trade cost of bilateral services between China and the United States in 1999-2017 and the trade cost of bilateral transport services,construction services,financial insurance services,telecommunications,computer and information services between China and the United States in 2000-2014.The results show that the cost of bilateral trade in services between China and the United States has shown a significant downward trend.Among the sub-sectors,construction services have the highest cost,followed by financial and insurance services,telecommunications,computer and information services,and transport services have the lowest trade cost.Among them,the trade cost of transport services has been lower than the overall level of service industry,and the overall change is relatively stable;the trade cost of telecommunications computer and information services is slightly higher than the overall level of service cost,and the overall change is also in a relatively stable state;the trade cost of Finance and insurance industry is high,but the overall situation is in a steady decline,and the downward trend is more significant;The trade cost of the industry is much higher than that of the other three industries,and it fluctuates greatly.In recent years,the trade cost of the industry has also shown an obvious upward trend.Then,using time series data,this paper carries out unit root,co-integration test and stepwise regression analysis on the influencing factors of Sino-US bilateral aggregate and trade cost of services in various industries.The results show that for the overall services between China and the United States,the rising exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will lead to higher costs,while the rising urbanization level and the openness of service trade in China will lead to lower costs.As far as transport services are concerned,an increase in the openness of China's transport services trade will help to reduce their costs;for construction services,an increase in urbanization level will help to reduce their costs;for financial and insurance services,an increase in the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will lead to an increase in their costs;and an increase in China's urbanization level will lead to a decrease in their costs.For telecommunications,computer and information services,the rise of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will hinder the reduction of their costs,while the improvement of China's information technology level and urbanization level will be conducive to the reduction of their costs.Generally speaking,the effect of economies of scale has not been reflected in reducing the cost of Sino-US bilateral trade in services.The rising exchange rate of RMB against US dollar has hindered the reduction of the cost of Sino-US bilateral trade in services.The openness of China's trade in services,the improvement of urbanization level and information technology level have a positive role in promoting the reduction of the cost of Sino-US bilateral trade in services.However,the corresponding U.S.factors have little impact on reducing the cost of bilateral trade in services between China and the United States.Finally,according to the results of the study,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to reduce the cost of Sino-US bilateral trade in services and promote the development of Sino-US bilateral trade in services.