Analysis Of The TPP Affect On Our Country’s Trade Benefits And Countermeasures

The second stage negotiation of trans-pacific partnership agreement(TPP) developed fast in the Asian-Pacific region since 2010 years. And it has been going on 23 rounds, countries involved in the talks also increased to 12. In addition, Japan has also joined in the negotiation, South Korea and other countries are actively preparing to join the talks. And the TPP will be the largest FTA in Asia-Pacific region when it take effect. What kind of influence will it have on our county’s international trade and macro-economy, what kind of countermeasures we can take, is an important issue in the field of research at present.The paper mainly includes three parts, the first chapter raise the questions through the study of background, and summarized the researches of TPP from different aspects of the domestic and foreign scholars current. The second chapter first have an introduction of the origin, development of TPP process, main contents and the characteristics of TPP. Although the TPP originate in P4 as the high standard and high quality of FTA United States spare no effort to build have many contradictions in the problem of lower tariffs, but it is still developing rapidly. Then have an analysis on the international trade volume, commodity structure and bilateral trade policy with the TPP negotiation countries. With the United States, Japan and other advanced economies in the world join the TPP negotiations, the trade between the TPP negotiation countries and our country increasing fast. And the proportion of intra-industry trade also becoming larger, especially the electrical and mechanical, chemical and other manufactured products. By the year of 2013, our country has been signed bilateral FTA with four of the TPP negotiation countries and negotiating with another two. All of these suggested that our country’s international trade have a deep depend on the TPP countries, and it is greatly increase the risk of economic operation; The third part applied GTAP model to simulate the TPP impact on our country’s trade benefits under different situations: our country’s trade benefits will have heavier damage alone with the increasing countries joining in the TPP if we are not in. While it will have great improve when we join in TPP. From the view of specific industry, there is a difference between different industry on the same situation of TPP’s influence on trade benefits.Finally, this paper will give some suggestions for government based on the analysis of theory and the empirical results above: we should reform the economic system and improve the weak industry’s international competitiveness first. At the same time we can hedge the trade benefits loss produced by TPP when it take effect from the two aspects. One is expanding domestic demand and expand overseas markets such as Africa, reduce reliance on the TPP as far as possible; Another is actively accelerate the bilateral FTA negotiations with the TPP countries to promote RCEP and the construction of China Japan ROK FTA.