Based On Blind Number Theory In The Risk Of Industrial Real Estate Development Earlier Period

Industrial real estate development has become a new trend of construction both in home and abroad. In order to explore the development path of industr ial real estate, the government has made many attempts, including issues many preferential policies. During the “five-second”, the government put the industrial structure adjustment and industrial upgrading as the priority of economic transformation, which deeply inspired the industrial real estate developer. For the developer, risks, especially the risks in the early phase of development, plays an essencial role in the success of real estate development. To reduce risks and guarantee the safety of construction, this research use blind number theory to solve the problem of uncertainty during the early phase of industrial real estate development.Based on the existing research, this paper first combs the theoretical and practical achievements in the area of risk research, industrial real estate analysis and the apllication of blind number theory. The futher analysis of the virtues and defects of those research lays a solid foundation for the later index selection and model building. Secondly, through the anal ysis of the problems and risks in the early phase of the industrial real estate development, we demonstrate the principles and steps to develop the risks index system. Futher, put the risk factors and risk index selection method into consideration, we buil t the index system, which has three index levels altogether, including target layer, guidelines layer(5 Index) and index layer(13 Index). Thirdly, since blind number theory is a promising approach to solve the problems mentioned above, this research comb ine the expert reliability and blind number theory to deal with the factors which cannot be quantified. And thus build the risk model. Finally, this research use a real project to test and verify the blind number theory based risk model. According to the r isk degree of different risk factors, we offered reasonable precautionary measures accordingly to ensure the security of the early phase development. This paper can provide a valuable guidance to the practice of blind number theory and make contribution to the research of risks in the industrial real estate development.