Real Estate Investment Risk Research Based On Blind Number Theory

Real estate as a special commodity, its characters are high value, the one and only, increment. In1987, the thirteen congress of the party put forward to the establishment of the real estate market formally, a few years later, a booming real estate market, but with the national suppression" real estate fever" the introduction of the policy and real estate market self regulation, many investment decision-making level is low, operation is not reasonable real estate development company by the market elimination. This time, urgent need uses scientific methods to predict and analysis of real estate investment risk in the process, real estate developers improve the investment decision-making level. China’s real estate development investment risk study is in reference to the foreign research results on the basis of expansion in recent years, and puts forward some methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis, formed a lot of achievements, but still failed to solve the real estate investment in the presence of the compound uncertainty of investment information and subjective awareness of the problem of uncertainty. It will be able to solve this kind of problems on uncertainty blind number into the investment risks of real estate exploitation research in the past, it has far-reaching theoretical and practical significance.This paper review on the domestic and foreign real estate investment risk on the history and current situation firstly, then analyzed the real estate and real estate investment characteristics, the introduction of real estate investment risk classification, recognition, measurement method. We analysis the real estate development of the whole process of five stages of all risk factors from product life cycle perspective. Putting forward to apply to our country real estate investment risk evaluation thoughts on constructing the system of evaluation index, according to the four principles of designing, the design of the real estate investment risk index system, based on blind number theory in real estate investment risk evaluation method, establishment of the real estate development investment risk evaluation model of blind number. Finally, through the empirical study, proved that the risk assessment system can accurately estimate the risk of investment projects, investment decision for the developers have a strong reference value, the research on the risk evaluation system and has certain theoretical and practical value.The author hopes that this paper can promote the development of real estate investment risk theory and the innovation in the field of practical research.