The Early-warning Of Real Estate In Xiamen City

Since the reform and open policy, taking the change of housing system and the land paid use as the turning point, the real estate industry resumes. It was developiing rapidly, full of vitality and the exuberant vigor. In recent years,the regional real estate price was rising rapidly. widespread attention has been brought on gradually.In this way we establish the urban real estate early warning system is urgent.This paper profits from the macro-economic early warning theory. It is based on the real estate economic cycle theory.we adopted the method of indicator system to establish a set of real estate economic risks early warning system for Xiamen. This early warning system selects vacancy rate for sentiment target. The unbalanced high of vacancy rate will cause serious waste to social resource, excessively low will cause quickly rise on the real estate price. Therefore, through monitoring of vacancy rate can regulate real estate economy running on the right road, avoiding the appearance of real estate economic risks. this early warning system has gotten some idea from Shanghai and other urban real estate early warning system on selecting indicator and the processing method. The gross indexing set includes four kind of indicator.that is real estate and macro-economic coordinated relations target, real estate supply and demand coordinated target, real estate internal coordinated target and macro-economic correlation ratio target ,23 targets in total. Then using the quota unifies and qualitative analysis determines 21 targets for the source target. Afterward, we use the time difference analytic method to carry on the classification of the source target. as a result we get 12 advanced targets for early warning. finally in the help of the method of dynamic related and expert establishling, we assign weight for the the early warning index to carry on the vacancy rate early warning system.This early warning system obtains good result in the data examination. It can send out sentiment signal three years ahead of time, providing the signal direction for the real estate risk monitoring. The result which demonstrated from the early warning index has sent out the risk signal in 1994. the vacancy rate inched higher in 1997.The index runs on the road of the long-term negative position from 1998 to 2001 demonstrating the vacancy rate continued to decline.It pushes the real estate price to a higher station. Certainly, this system need to improve in some aspect, The data in examination is insufficient to show overall scientific and the validity. But, this is beneficial attempt to making Xiamen real estate economic early warning system. We could get a better result in the future through improvement.