Based On The Spatial Economics To Research The Commodity Residential House Price’s Spillover Effect Of The Pearl River Delta

In recent years, the housing price has become the focus of the real estate market participants together, including developers, consumers and governments at all levels. Academic research on housing price spillover effect also gradually in-depth.In the process of commodity housing price fluctuations,We noticed that the commodity residential house price fluctuations are always started at the area that social and economic development level are higher, then in turn affect the area surrounding the market expectations, and as the regional urban agglomeration gradually formed, the spillover effects of the residential prices between city will continuously strengthen.In this paper, the main research is based on the spatial economics and the related theories of urban agglomeration to prove whether there is a space "spillover effect" between the commodity residential house price. By selecting the 2005~2013 commodity residential house price of the pearl river delta urban agglomeration’s nine major cities,and building the spatial econometric model, for commodity residential house price spillover to make qualitative and quantitative analysis from the perspective of the space area, further to reveal and explore the influence’s direction and degree of the commodity residential house price spillover effect.In this paper, the main conclusions are the following::(1)In this paper, summarized the research about the development of the commodity residential house price spillover effects theory and method both at home and abroad the, on the study of the commodity residential house price, we found that the spatial economics theory and method has better explanation and persuasion.(2)The paper summarizes the research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars, the reasons for the formation of commodity housing price fluctuations can be drawn from the diffusion mainly has the following five aspects: family migration, arbitrage trading and the search cost, transfer of wealth, space, the factors influencing residential property prices lead/lag relationships.(3)Selection nine major cities of the pearl river delta as the research sample, and using the global spatial autocorrelation Moran’s I index to test sample urban housing price existing space effect on the space, which indicates that the selected 9 sample cities housing prices exists significant spatial dependence.(4)On the basis of the result that sample cities’ s residential price exist space effect, and stepwise regression model parameters to confirm the housing price’s spillover effects path and degree. Regression results show that housing prices of the three cities of GuangZhou、ShenZhen、ZhuHai showed a significant volatility diffusion effect,and these three also have an bigger influence to other cities housing prices,at the same time, other cities housing prices feedback to the three cities is also significant.