The Empirical Analysis Of Effects Under The CAFTA Rules Of Origin

China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Rules of Origin began in 2004.As an important policy tool to FAT, Rules of Origin should be designed reasonable and appropriate, in order that restrains trade deflection effective. As a result,members of FTA can fully benefit from trade liberalization and reinforce the development of CAFTA. How to standardize and improve CAFTA Rules of Origin becomes the subject of a theoretical and practical significance.On the basis of describing the Rules of Origin of CAFTA, this paper points out main issues of Rules of Origin: substantive changes standards too lax and lack of flexibility and low use of Rules of Origin and crossover of Rules of Origin. Then, using quantitative analysis, this paper clearly states the protective effect of Rules of Origin on trade protection effect, trade creation effect and trade diversion effect. Rules of Origin also plays a positive role on the welfare of states. Furthermore, through using trade gravity model with CAFTA-related data, this paper uses comparative analysis and makes a comparison about joining CAFTA Rules of Origin and eliminating Rules of Origin, which is the dummy variable. Making analysis from a quantitative perspective, we find that CAFTA Rules of Origin will enforce import and export trade of China. The Rules of Origin of CAFTA is an important variable affecting Chinese export trade flows. Preferential trade arrangements are important factors affecting trade flows of Chinese imports. Finally, to deal with CAFTA Rules of Origin in accordance with the existing problems, China can learn experience from NAFTA and strengthen coordination of members of CAFTA and improve understanding about Rules of Origin.