Research On Comprehensive Evaluation Of Debt Risk Of Public-Rent-House In Chongqing

The current real estate bubble in china is so serious that leads to growing disparities in housing level between people。So, based on the current situation of our country, the central government duly put forward this policy of developing Public-Rent-House vigorously as a key of affordable housing construction. To encourage local governments, social organizations and social fund to develop the Public-Rent-House(PRH), a series of supporting polices had been proposed like financial subsidies, tax relief and support of loan financing. Although the construction of PRH have made certain achievement after a few years of trials, demand has far outstripped supply of PRH for which lack of funds is accepted as the bottleneck problem. Chongqing province firstly succeeded to solve the issue of financing and the goal of building 40000 square metres in 5 years is finished ahead of schedule while all other provinces are still stuck in financing problems.Chongqing model is recognized all over the country, however the author think a perfect financing model is not only characterized to raise enough money for building but also to repay the loans on schedule. Currently the PRH in Chongqing is being completed and goes into service gradually, the time to repay the loan is closing. So, the author intent to make comprehensive estimation for the debt risk of PRH in Chongqing,and try to analyses the debt risk in its entirely to provide reference for making the debt payment scheme and managing the payment risk.The debt risk is determined by a series of qualitative and quantitative factors and the relation between every factor and debt risk is not clear and unable indicated by mathematical formulas which means the study of debt risk is fuzzy and uncertainty. Base on that this article models a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model by combining Grey whitening clustering theory to assess the risk.Firstly, this article reviews the construction and operating pattern of public housing at home and abroad to raise the practice in Chongqing. Then by dissecting the demand for funds, source of funds, formation of debt and ways of repaying, indicator system was built to model this fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. Later takes a Public rental housing community in Chongqing as example to study its debt risk to prove the model to be feasible, it turns out this example has a mild-to-moderate repaying risk, and the risk of each index is detailed after. At last, some strategies and proposals suitable for Chongqing to mange the debt risk of PRH are advised from three directions as follows: the early stage of project, the operating period of project and the interested parties, based on foreigner models and the result of the example-above.