Study On The Raw Material Ordering Model When The Raw Material Price Is Uncertainty

Recently, with the market and economic globalization as well as the rapid development of information technology, the global economy is becoming unpredictable, which leads to the great fluctuation and uncertainty of raw materials. The fluctuation of raw materials is a key factor in affecting the cost of the enterprise, causing difficulties for many buyers. Nowadays, many enterprises pay more attention to the fluctuation of raw materials, especially stainless steel enterprises, focusing on the fluctuation of Nickel price. Nickel price accounts for 60-80% in the cost of stainless steel products, meantime, its price fluctuates fiercely. From 2007 to 2012, Nickel price fell down or rose sharply, and in this short period, the price constantly experienced such ups and downs. Based on this, the author researched the ordering model of raw materials with uncertainty prices; therefore, the paper is of great practical significance.The paper introduces the fundamental knowledge, basic ordering model, ordering model with price fluctuation home and abroad, and the general situation of price fluctuation. Considering the present ordering model, the author suggests respective ordering according to different production stages, combining the price fluctuation and features of hard prediction, and then offering the following ordering model, by using the data of this enterprises and analysis of examples.The paper includes three parts.(1) Illustrate the problems when ordering raw materials with uncertainty prices. Analyze the price fluctuation and relevant ordering model; and briefly introduce the price fluctuation and its reason; describe the situation of price uncertainty and conclude the ordering model of raw materials under such situation.(2) Put forward the ordering model with price uncertainty. First, illustrate the situation of price uncertainty, and show the formula to conclude the ordering model under this situation without considering bulk discount. Then divide the production period into different stages (with equal time). After this, make overall consideration of initial stock, consumption amount, ordering amount to conclude the entire inventory, and the stock expenses of every stage. Multiple the amount and price of every stage to conclude the ordering expenses, and ordering cost. Consequently, conclude the ordering model of raw materials with price uncertainty. Then analyze the model by using the actual data, finally conclude ordering strategies under this situation.(3) Put forward the ordering model with price uncertainties considering bulk discount. First, give the formula of ordering model under this situation. Then divide the whole production period into different stages (with equal time), consider initial stock, consumption amount, and ordering amount to conclude the entire inventory and the stock expenses. Then multiple ordering amount and price of each stage as well as the discount to conclude ordering expenses, and the ordering cost. Finally conclude the ordering model under this situation. Then analyze the model by actual data to reach the ordering strategies under this situation.The model combines the actual situation of fierce price fluctuation of raw materials with the real ordering model in the stainless steel enterprises, which has the function of guiding the ordering of the enterprise. At the same time, under the uncertainty price, the author put forward new means and thinking, and this will help to research ordering model with other uncertainties.