A Study About Rate Difference Of Cultivated Land Changes And Its Impact In Different Development Stages Of Urbanization

The cause of the mainly objective of this article is the change of arable land urbanization rate differences and the resulting differences in the development stages of analysis. Based on the principles of accessibility and representativeness,chosen from more than two hundreds countries and regions of the world in fifty years from twenty-six countries and regions(1961-2011)as the sample period,using descriptive statistics, principle component analysis, multivariate linear regression method Oacaxa-Blinder decomposition method and empirical analysis.The results showed that:(1) At the initial stage of urbanization,the change of cultivated land is positive;When the urbanization entered the middle stage,the majority of arable land into a negative rate of change,and the speed difference between the initial rate of medium-term is negative,indicating that compared with the early stage,the middle stage of arable land or accelerate the reduction of the growth rate of decline;the later stages of urbanization,most arable land once again turned positive rate of change,and the difference of late mid speed is positive,indicating that compared with the mid-stage,the accelerate of late stage of urbanization is increase or reduction of arable decreases.(2)In the early middle stages of urbanization,between the impact of the change rate of arable four factors,economic factors,demographic factors and environmental factors are the rate of change arable land will have a significant impact on the role of agricultural technology factor on arable land speed does not change significantly influence.When environmental factors can have a significant positive impact on the rate of change of cultivated land presents a negative impact.By comparison it can be found that early and middle stages of urbanization phase change rate of cultivated produce is mainly due to GDP and per capita GDP differences in economic factors between the early and middle stages of stages; In the middle and late stages of urbanization,between the impact of the rate of change of arable four factors,economic factors,demographic factors,environmental factors are the rate of change of arable land will have a significant,and impact on the role of agricultural technology factor corresponding coefficient is not significant. Where economic factors and demographic factors on the rate of change of arable land have a significant negative effect,between environmental factors and the rate of change of cultivated land have become a positive relationship.By comparison can be found that the mainly cause of urbanization late stage and middle stage of the rate of change of arable land to produce difference is that the proportion of cultivated land differences in environmental factors between the urban middle stage and late stage of urbanization.(3)Through the Oacaxa-Blinder decomposition, it is found that the driving factors of the difference of the speed of the cultivated land changes in different stages of urbanization are the the urban population in population factors and GDP,per capita GDP in economic factors.Finally, based on the analysis presented urbanization mid-stages of the policy proposes to maintain the stability of arable land.