| Since the reform and opening, our country market economy development and economic construction has made remarkable achievements. In China from the planned economy to market economy with Chinese characteristics, price control increase step by step and the commodity retail price rise year by year.The intuitive feelings of people in recent years is that the price rise too fast. In economics, commodity prices are rising, in the case of other factors unchanged, it will inevitably lead to increase the amount of supply and reduce the demand, and it will generate a lot of unsold goods, and domestic demand is decreasing. Government tend to implement a proactive fiscal and monetary policy, and increase public revenue to increase domestic demand, however, if the rise in prices is caused by flow amount increased, aggressive monetary policy is difficult to solve this problem. So what is the macro factors affected the change of the retail price of a commodity? This problem is the focus in the study of this article. Research of this paper is from the convergence of the retail price of tangible goods, commodity retail price convergence is representative the stationarity of all regions in our country of amplitude change in retail prices of commodities, the price of convergence can represent the time series volatility of commodity prices. Through the descriptive analysis is given on the convergence of price, the price change trend also be showed, and the article discuss the macro factors which is relevant to the price of convergence. Below is the article research methods and results.This article selects the national bureau of statistics released by the provinces and cities autonomous region of the total commodity retail price index build price variations, price change amplitude variance of two indicators to respectively the tangible commodity retail price range and the difference degree regional change in retail prices of commodities in China, the time series under the 5% significant level passed the ADF and ERS test, two time series are stationary. This means that after 1996 years in our country start in steady state, commodity price variations with a convergence. In order to study the macroscopic factors influencing price convergence, the GDP, government spending, combined circulation monetary and other macroeconomic factors and price variations, price change amplitude variance together into the VAR model, Through the Lasso regression, Granger test and impulse response function and variance decomposition method did further research on the model. Lasso regression shows that the variance range of changes in prices, the growth of money supply, the government’s fiscal expenditure growth convergence in the price of these three factors on the more obvious; Granger test results show that the GDP growth and price convergence really has a very close relationship; Mo growth is a Granger cause of price convergence; Fiscal expenditure growth rate faster, the more stable price change. Impulse response function indicates that GDP growth will directly after a hit from the outside world to price signals, and timely. Mo supply has a significant lift on changes in the price range. Government spending growth range also have long-lasting effect on the price, the greater the number of government spending, the movement of the more stable, is conducive to price convergence. Variance decomposition show that the combined their contribution, regardless of price changes in price change amplitude variance contribution rate of the highest reached 12.02, GDP growth contribution rate of price change in the second period up to 8.11, then the contribution degree of decline. Mo growth is the maximum in the 10th 12.97, government spending growth in the maximum period of 911.24.On the basis of empirical analysis, in order to further boost domestic demand, reduce prices rose too fast and unsalable goods problem and reduce regional price differences, promote the overall development of the national economy, the paper gives the following Suggestions:Take prudent monetary policy to control money supply and the market interest rate, stable bank reserve policy and bank bills discounting policies; Reduce level of domestic regional trade protection, reform the administrative system and mechanism of local government performance inspection, change government function, effectively limited local protectionism, promote the rational circulation of goods and production factors and effective configuration; Reform the current tax system, encourage the rational flow of commodity circulation and the factor of production, to make the market mechanism reasonable allocation of resources play a better role; Strengthen the infrastructure construction such as transportation, telecommunications, optimize the distribution of infrastructure, improving the utilization ratio of infrastructure, to reduce the goods transportation cost; Set up information interaction mechanism of regional economic cooperation; Further encouraged to support the development of the "Internet+", through the Internet range around the unique features of the online platform to ease trade barriers; In view of the regional economic development level, implement differentiation of economic policy.Innovation of this paper point three:1. According to the national regional annual price index is constructed to represent the price differences in different areas across the country the size of the index that price change amplitude variance sum and price variations.2. It is to these two indicators and macroeconomic indicators into the VAR model, in the form of a comprehensive model to explore the relationship of these factors, namely the macro factor how to influence the price convergence, convergence and price how feedback macroeconomic indicators.3. In the variable selection, the Lasso regression method was adopted, Lasso regression can be realized at the same time in the parameter estimation of the selection of variables, better solve the multicollinearity problem in regression analysis, and can well explain the results. |
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