Research On Influence Factors And Forecasts Of Commodity Housing Price In Changsha City

Commercial housing has become China’s new economic growth point, the housing market related to the interests of the residents, and also the focus of the society. Whether it is from the angle of the national economic development, or from the basic needs of masses of the people, as well as the investment decisions of the developers, to grasp the changes in commercial housing price trends are particularly important.The paper explained the purpose and significance and related concepts, basic characteristics of the commercial housing price which based on the domestic and foreign research methods. The gray correlation method was used to analysis the various factors that affect the commercial housing prices in Changsha City from2001to2010, and obtained the degree of influence of various factors, and sort. The residential land price, urbanization rate, urban population, one-year lending rate, urban residents per capita disposable income, GDP and completion of the commercial residential area is the main influencing factors. Residential land price is the most important factor, while the completion of the commercial residential area is minimal impact on housing prices in Changsha City. The GM (1,1)-Markov forecasting model was used to predict the future price of commercial residential houses in Changsha City. The commodity housing prices predicted by the model was6485.55yuan in2012, and it will keep rising trend. It is feasibility and practicality to combining the grey system theory and other mathematical model to research the changes of the commodity houses price.